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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Good Sign:
Beneish M-Score -2.85 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
The historical rank and industry rank for Red Trail Energy LLC's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Red Trail Energy LLC was 2.46. The lowest was -6.67. And the median was -2.84.
The historical data trend for Red Trail Energy LLC's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Red Trail Energy LLC Annual Data | |||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Sep14 | Sep15 | Sep16 | Sep17 | Sep18 | Sep19 | Sep20 | Sep21 | Sep22 | Sep23 | |||||||||||
Beneish M-Score | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -1.21 | -4.38 | -3.37 | -1.06 | -1.70 |
Red Trail Energy LLC Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Mar19 | Jun19 | Sep19 | Dec19 | Mar20 | Jun20 | Sep20 | Dec20 | Mar21 | Jun21 | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | |
Beneish M-Score | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -2.02 | 0.09 | 2.46 | -1.70 | -2.85 |
For the Chemicals subindustry, Red Trail Energy LLC's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Chemicals industry and Basic Materials sector, Red Trail Energy LLC's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Red Trail Energy LLC's Beneish M-Score falls into.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Red Trail Energy LLC for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
= | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 0.9344 | + | 0.528 * 0.9991 | + | 0.404 * 1.1923 | + | 0.892 * 0.9891 | + | 0.115 * 0.706 | |
- | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI | |||||||
- | 0.172 * 1.5038 | + | 4.679 * -0.045641 | - | 0.327 * 1.1291 | |||||||
= | -2.85 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
This Year (Dec23) TTM: | Last Year (Dec22) TTM: |
Total Receivables was $5.0 Mil. Revenue was 43.456 + 50.825 + 49.691 + 54.653 = $198.6 Mil. Gross Profit was 3.103 + 6.05 + 1.652 + 0.963 = $11.8 Mil. Total Current Assets was $43.8 Mil. Total Assets was $127.6 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $76.4 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $6.4 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $5.9 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $26.3 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $21.8 Mil. Net Income was 2.161 + 4.359 + 0.136 + -0.799 = $5.9 Mil. Non Operating Income was 0.455 + 0.223 + 0.044 + 0.044 = $0.8 Mil. Cash Flow from Operations was 7.384 + 8.57 + 7.632 + -12.671 = $10.9 Mil. |
Total Receivables was $5.4 Mil. Revenue was 44.498 + 48.91 + 55.72 + 51.678 = $200.8 Mil. Gross Profit was 3.389 + -3.019 + 6.438 + 5.079 = $11.9 Mil. Total Current Assets was $46.1 Mil. Total Assets was $131.7 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $79.2 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $4.5 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $3.9 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $21.4 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $22.5 Mil. |
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
= | (5 / 198.625) | / | (5.41 / 200.806) | |
= | 0.025173 | / | 0.026941 | |
= | 0.9344 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
= | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) | |
= | (11.887 / 200.806) | / | (11.768 / 198.625) | |
= | 0.059196 | / | 0.059247 | |
= | 0.9991 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | (1 - (43.813 + 76.419) / 127.605) | / | (1 - (46.083 + 79.189) / 131.652) | |
= | 0.05778 | / | 0.048461 | |
= | 1.1923 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
= | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 | |
= | 198.625 | / | 200.806 | |
= | 0.9891 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
= | (4.535 / (4.535 + 79.189)) | / | (6.35 / (6.35 + 76.419)) | |
= | 0.054166 | / | 0.07672 | |
= | 0.706 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
= | (5.868 / 198.625) | / | (3.945 / 200.806) | |
= | 0.029543 | / | 0.019646 | |
= | 1.5038 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | ((21.842 + 26.254) / 127.605) | / | ((22.524 + 21.422) / 131.652) | |
= | 0.376913 | / | 0.333804 | |
= | 1.1291 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
= | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t | |
= | (5.857 - 0.766 | - | 10.915) | / | 127.605 | |
= | -0.045641 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Red Trail Energy LLC has a M-score of -2.85 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Red Trail Energy LLC's Beneish M-Score provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Jodi Marie Johnson | officer: Chief Financial Officer | PO BOX 513, MEDORA ND 58645 |
Anthony Lee Mock | director | 5665 22ND AVE SE, KINTYRE ND 58549 |
Kent Wayne Anderson | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 1767 PRAIRIE AVENUE, DICKINSON ND 58601 |
Calvin Diehl | officer: Chief Executive Officer | 3682 HIGHWAY 8 SOUTH, P O BOX 11, RICHARDTON ND 58652 |
Gerald Bachmeier | officer: Interim Chief Executive Office | 20897 467TH AVE, MORRIS MN 56267 |
Sidney A Mauch | director | 712 WYNDEMERE DRIVE, WEST FARGO ND 58078 |
Mike Appert | director | 755 HIGHWAY 34, HAZELTON ND 58544 |
William Price | director | 2273 RIVER ROAD, PRICE ND 58530 |
Jody Hoff | director | 8601 HIGHWAY 10 EAST, RICHARDTON ND 58652 |
Mark Klempel | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 3682 HIGHWAY 8 SOUTH, RICHARDTON ND 58652 |
Mick J Miller | officer: President | 3682 HIGHWAY 8 SOUTH, RICHARDTON ND 58652 |
Roger N Berglund | director | 104 9TH AVENUE NW, BOWMAN ND 58623 |
Frank Kirschenheiter | director | 322 12TH AVENUE WEST, RICHARDTON ND 58652 |
Tim Meuchel | director | 510 MAIN AVENUE, HEBRON ND 58638 |
Bonnie G Eckelberg | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 3682 HIGHWAY 8 SOUTH, RICHARDTON ND 58652 |
From GuruFocus
By Rupert Hargreaves Rupert Hargreaves • 01-30-2018
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