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As of today (2024-05-14), Contango Ore's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $-48.27.
Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
Contango Ore's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Contango Ore is N/A.
The historical rank and industry rank for Contango Ore's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
The historical data trend for Contango Ore's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Contango Ore Annual Data | |||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Jun14 | Jun15 | Jun16 | Jun17 | Jun18 | Jun19 | Jun20 | Jun21 | Jun22 | Jun23 | |||||||||||
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | - | - | - | - | - |
Contango Ore Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Mar19 | Jun19 | Sep19 | Dec19 | Mar20 | Jun20 | Sep20 | Dec20 | Mar21 | Jun21 | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | |
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | - | - | - | - | - |
For the Gold subindustry, Contango Ore's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Contango Ore's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Contango Ore's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.44%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Contango Ore's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past
3 years was -58.20%,
which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $-4.183.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Contango Ore's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | = | EPS without NRI | * | {[(1+g1)/(1+d) | + | (1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10] |
+ | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10 | * | [(1+g2)/(1+d) | + | (1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]} |
set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | = | EPS without NRI | * | {[x | + | x^2 | + | ... | + | x^10] | + | x^10 | * | [y | + | y^2 | + | ... | + | y^10]} |
= | EPS without NRI | * | [x | * | (1-x^10) | / | (1-x) | + | x^10 | * | y | * | (1-y^10) | / | (1-y)] | |||||
= | -4.183 | * | 11.5406 | |||||||||||||||||
= | -48.27 |
Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) | = | (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | - | Current Price) | / | Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) |
= | (-48.27 | - | 19.44) | / | -48.27 | |
= | N/A |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Contango Ore (AMEX:CTGO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings powerYou can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Contango Ore's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Nieuwenhuyse Rick Van | director, officer: President and CEO | C/O TRILOGY METALS, 1950 - 777 DUNSMUIR STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V7Y 1K4 |
John B Juneau | director, officer: President and CEO | 3700 BUFFALO SPEEDWAY, SUITE 960, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
Joseph S Compofelice | director | 24 WATERWAY AVENUE, STE 200, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
Richard Shortz | director | 3700 BUFFALO SPEEDWAY, SUITE 925, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
Michael Aaron Clark | officer: Executive VP-Finance | 6202 OVERSTONE DR, WEST VANCOUVER Z4 V7W1X5 |
Leah S Gaines | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 3700 BUFFALO SPEEDWAY, SUITE 1010, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
Curtis J. Freeman | director | 3700 BUFFALO SPEEDWAY, STE. 925, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
Royal Gold Inc | 10 percent owner | 1144 15TH STREET, SUITE 2500, DENVER CO 80202 |
Scott J. Reiman | 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group | 730 17TH STREET SUITE 800, DENVER CO 80202 |
Kenneth R. Peak Marital Trust | 10 percent owner | 2 LONGFELLOW LANE, HOUSTON TX 77005 |
Estate Of Kenneth R. Peak | 10 percent owner | C/O CONTANGO OIL & GAS COMPANY, 3700 BUFFALO SPEEDWAY, SUITE 960, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
Joseph G. Greenberg | director | 3700 BUFFALO SPEEDWAY, STE 960, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
Donald Gillen | 10 percent owner | 21 CAPILANO DRIVE, SASKATOON A9 S7K 4A4 |
Hexagon, Llc | 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group | 730 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 800, DENVER CO 80202 |
Sergio Castro | officer: Vice President, CFO, Treasurer | 2019 MOUNTAIN CREEK, PEARLAND TX 77584 |
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