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Shell (CHIX:SHELL) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share : £2.40 (As of Mar. 2024)


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What is Shell Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

Shell's adjusted free cash flow per share for the three months ended in Mar. 2024 was £1.131. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide the count will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is £2.40 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2024.

During the past 12 months, Shell's average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 21.20% per year. During the past 3 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 23.10% per year. During the past 5 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 22.50% per year. During the past 10 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 14.10% per year. Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate using Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share data.

During the past 13 years, the highest 3-Year average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate of Shell was 26.00% per year. The lowest was -5.20% per year. And the median was 20.60% per year.

As of today (2024-05-22), Shell's current stock price is £27.6275. Shell's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2024 was £2.40. Shell's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is 11.51.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Shell was 46.83. The lowest was 7.53. And the median was 25.04.


Shell Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Historical Data

The historical data trend for Shell's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Shell Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Chart

Shell Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.08 1.26 1.44 1.92 2.35

Shell Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.98 2.09 2.18 2.35 2.40

Competitive Comparison of Shell's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share

For the Oil & Gas Integrated subindustry, Shell's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Shell's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Shell's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Shell's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.



Shell Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

What is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share? How do we calculate Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the free cash flow per share from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the 2001 free cash flow per share data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent free cash flow in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent free cash flow in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 free cash flow in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent free cash flow per share of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by the count to get Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

For example, Shell's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2024 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare= Free Cash Flow per Share /CPI of Mar. 2024 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2024)
=1.131/131.6000*131.6000
=1.131

Current CPI (Mar. 2024) = 131.6000.

Shell Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201406 0.069 99.800 0.091
201409 0.487 100.000 0.641
201412 0.079 99.900 0.104
201503 0.093 99.600 0.123
201506 -0.016 100.100 -0.021
201509 0.491 100.200 0.645
201512 -0.195 100.400 -0.256
201603 -0.453 100.400 -0.594
201606 -0.306 101.000 -0.399
201609 0.301 101.500 0.390
201612 0.339 102.200 0.437
201703 0.512 102.700 0.656
201706 0.530 103.500 0.674
201709 0.231 104.300 0.291
201712 0.126 105.000 0.158
201803 0.400 105.100 0.501
201806 0.379 105.900 0.471
201809 0.576 106.600 0.711
201812 1.418 107.100 1.742
201903 0.324 107.000 0.398
201906 0.569 107.900 0.694
201909 0.627 108.400 0.761
201912 0.341 108.500 0.414
202003 1.094 108.600 1.326
202006 -0.090 108.800 -0.109
202009 0.663 109.200 0.799
202012 0.103 109.400 0.124
202103 0.406 109.700 0.487
202106 0.763 111.400 0.901
202109 1.066 112.400 1.248
202112 0.188 114.700 0.216
202203 1.048 116.500 1.184
202206 1.294 120.500 1.413
202209 0.875 122.300 0.942
202212 1.842 125.300 1.935
202303 0.944 126.800 0.980
202306 1.215 129.400 1.236
202309 0.848 130.100 0.858
202312 0.668 130.500 0.674
202403 1.131 131.600 1.131

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.


Shell  (CHIX:SHELl) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share may underestimate the company's free cash flow. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can seem to be too high even the actual Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is low.

For the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, the free cash flow per share of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/FCF calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is also called CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Shell's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=27.6275/2.4
=11.51

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Shell was 46.83. The lowest was 7.53. And the median was 25.04.


Be Aware

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real free cash flow value.


Shell Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Shell's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Shell (CHIX:SHELL) Business Description

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Shell Centre, London, GBR, SE1 7NA
Shell is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil around the world. In 2022, it produced 1.5 million barrels of liquids and 7.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At year-end 2022, reserves stood at 9.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 50% of which consisted of liquids. Its production and reserves are in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, and North and South America. The company operates refineries with capacity of 1.7 mmb/d located in the Americas, Asia, Africa, and Europe and sells 12 million tons per year of chemicals. Its largest chemical plants, often integrated with its local refineries, are in Central Europe, China, Singapore, and North America.

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