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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Walgreens Boots Alliance's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.30%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Pharmaceutical Retailers subindustry, Walgreens Boots Alliance's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Healthcare Providers & Services industry and Healthcare sector, Walgreens Boots Alliance's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Walgreens Boots Alliance's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -5.80 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.30% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Walgreens Boots Alliance (NAS:WBA) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Walgreens Boots Alliance's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Nancy M Schlichting | director | 200 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015 |
Timothy C Wentworth | director, officer: Chief Executive Officer | C/O EXPRESS SCRIPTS HOLDING COMPANY, ONE EXPRESS WAY, ST. LOUIS MO 63121 |
Richard P. Gates | officer: SVP, Chief Pharmacy Officer | C/O WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE, INC., 108 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015 |
Neal J. Sample | officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer | 200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285 |
Todd Heckman | officer: Interim Global Controller | C/O WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE, INC., 108 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015 |
Polen Thomas E Jr | director | BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417 |
John Patrick Driscoll | officer: EVP, Pres. U.S. Healthcare | C/O WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE, INC., 108 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015 |
Rosalind G Brewer | director, officer: CEO | C/O MOLSON COORS BREWING COMPANY, 1225 17TH STREET, SUITE 3200, DENVER CO 80202 |
Kevin M. Ban | officer: EVP, Chief Medical Officer | C/O WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE, INC., 108 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015 |
Bryan C Hanson | director | ZIMMER BIOMET HOLDINGS, 345 E. MAIN STREET, WARSAW IN 46580 |
Henry Lee Cooper | officer: EVP, Pres. Walgreens Pharmacy | C/O WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE, INC., 108 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015 |
Tracey D Brown | officer: SVP, Pres., Walgreens Retail | 675 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
Inderpal S Bhandari | director | C/O WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE, INC., DEERFIELD IL 60015 |
Steven J Shulman | director | 1564 NE EXPRESSWAY, ATTN: BJ PURCELL, ATLANTA GA 30329 |
Holly May | officer: EVP, Global Chief HR Officer | 6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054 |
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