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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Spok Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Health Information Services subindustry, Spok Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Healthcare Providers & Services industry and Healthcare sector, Spok Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Spok Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -8.35 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.02% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Spok Holdings (NAS:SPOK) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Spok Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Vincent D Kelly | director, officer: President & CEO | C/O RENTON MEDIA INC, 1300 EAST NINTH ST, CLEVELAND OH 44114 |
Sharon Woods-keisling | officer: Corporate Secretary, Treasurer | 6677 RICHMOND HIGHWAY, ALEXANDRIA VA 22306 |
Michael W Wallace | officer: Chief Financial Officer | SAWGRASS CORPORATE INDUSTRIAL PARK, 14000 NW 4TH ST, SUNRISE FL 33325 |
Calvin Rice | officer: Controller | C/O SPOK HOLDINGS, INC., 6850 VERSAR CTR STE 420, SPRINGFIELD VA 22151 |
Todd J Stein | director | C/O SPOK HOLDINGS, INC., 6850 VERSAR CTR STE 420, SPRINGFIELD VA 22151 |
Barbara Peterson Byrne | director | C/O SPOK HOLDINGS, INC., 6850 VERSAR CTR STE 420, SPRINGFIELD VA 22315 |
Randy Hyun | director | C/O SPOK HOLDINGS, INC., 5911 KINGSTOWNE VILLAGE PARKWAY 6TH FLR, ALEXANDRIA VA 22315 |
Matthew Oristano | director | C/O ARCH WIRELESS INC, 1800 WEST PARK DR. #250, WESTBOROUGH MA 01581 |
Brian Oreilly | director | C/O METROCALL, 6677 RICHMOND HWY, ALEXANDRIA VA 22306 |
Christine Cournoyer | director | 150 SHAW ROAD, CHESTNUT MA 02467 |
Brett A Shockley | director | 7125 NORTHLAND TERRACE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55428 |
Royce Yudkoff | director | C/O METROCALL, 6677 RICHMOND HWY, ALEXANDRIA VA 22306 |
Stacia Hylton | director | 6850 VERSAR CENTER STE 420, SPRINGFIELD VA 22151 |
Tom Saine | officer: Chief Technology Officer | 6677 RICHMOND HIGHWAY, ALEXANDIRA VA 22306 |
Ted Peterman | officer: Controller | C/O SPōK HOLDINGS, INC., 6850 VERSAR CTR STE 420, SPRINGFIELD VA 22151 |
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