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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Kymera Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Biotechnology subindustry, Kymera Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Kymera Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Kymera Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -8.28 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.03% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Kymera Therapeutics (NAS:KYMR) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Kymera Therapeutics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Jeffrey W. Albers | director | BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORP., 215 FIRST STREET, SUITE 340/350, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
Ellen Chiniara | officer: Chief Legal Officer | 51 SAWYER ROAD, SUITE 200, WALTHAM MA 02453 |
Biotechnology Value Fund L P | other: See Explanation of Responses | 44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
Jeremy G Chadwick | officer: Chief Operating Officer | C/O KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 ARSENAL YARDS BLVD., SUITE 230, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
Bruce N. Jacobs | officer: Chief Financial Officer | C/O KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 ARSENAL YARDS, SUITE 230, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
Bruce Booth | director | 890 WINTER STREET, SUITE 320, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
Atlas Venture Fund X, L.p. | 10 percent owner | 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
Victor Sandor | director | C/O ARRAY BIOPHARMA INC., 3200 WALNUT STREET, BOULDER CO 80301 |
Leigh Morgan | director | KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 ARSENAL YARDS BLVD., SUITE 230, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
John Maraganore | director | 75 SIDNEY ST, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
Nello Mainolfi | director, officer: President and CEO | C/O KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 ARSENAL YARDS, SUITE 230, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
Jared Gollob | officer: Chief Medical Officer | C/O KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 ARSENAL YARDS, SUITE 230, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
Richard Chesworth | officer: Chief Scientific Officer | C/O KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 ARSENAL YARDS, SUITE 230, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
Atlas Venture Associates X, L.p. | 10 percent owner | 400 TECHNOLOGY SQ., 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
Elaine Caughey | officer: Chief Business Officer | C/O KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 ARSENAL YARDS, SUITE 230, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
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