GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Citizens Financial Group Inc (NYSE:CFG) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Citizens Financial Group (Citizens Financial Group) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.07% (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is Citizens Financial Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Citizens Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Citizens Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Citizens Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Citizens Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Citizens Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Citizens Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


Citizens Financial Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.32

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.07%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Money Market Investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Citizens Financial Group  (NYSE:CFG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Citizens Financial Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Citizens Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Citizens Financial Group (Citizens Financial Group) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Citizens Financial Group Inc (NYSE:CFG) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Comparable Companies
BAP KEY RF HBAN NYCB WBS FHN FITB CFR CBSH CAR:BPV CAR:MVZ.A CAR:BNC NSE:HDFCBANK SHSE:600036 NSE:ICICIBANK SAU:1120 ISX:BBCA XPAR:BNP MIC:SBER
Traded in Other Exchanges
CFGpE.PFD:USA CFGpD.PFD:USA 1C5:Germany 1C5:Germany C1FG34:Brazil
Address
One Citizens Plaza, Providence, RI, USA, RI 02903
Website
https://www.citizensbank.com
Citizens Financial Group is a bank holding company headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island. Its two primary business segments are consumer banking and commercial banking. Citizens offers a mix of retail and commercial products including capital markets and wealth options. The bank has over 1,000 branches in 14 states, although it is primarily concentrated in the Northeast. It has over $220 billion of total assets.
Executives
Terrance J. Lillis director C/O CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06901
Shivan S. Subramaniam director CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., CS119N, STAMFORD CT 06901
Kevin Cummings director 101 JFK PARKWAY, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Michele N Siekerka director 101 JFK PARKWAY, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Polly N. Klane officer: General Counsel C/O CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06901
Michael Ruttledge officer: Chief Information Officer CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06901
Lee Alexander director CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD. 11TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06901
Christopher Swift director HARBORSIDE FINANCIAL CENTER, 3200 PLAZA 5, JERSEY CITY NJ 07311
Brendan Coughlin officer: Head of Consumer Banking CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC, 600 WASHINGTON BLVD. 11TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06901
William P Hankowsky director C/O LIBERTY PROPERTY TRUST, 65 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY, MALVERN PA 19355
Robert G Leary director CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD,, STAMFORD CT 06901
Charles John Koch director CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., CS119N, STAMFORD CT 06901
Higdon Leo I Jr director 1700 LINCOLN STREET, 28TH FLOOR, DENVER CO 80203
Elizabeth S. Johnson officer: Chief Experience Officer CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06901
Susan Lamonica officer: Chief Human Resources Officer CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD. 11TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06901