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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, ACC Aviation Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.20%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Shell Companies subindustry, ACC Aviation Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Diversified Financial Services industry and Financial Services sector, ACC Aviation Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where ACC Aviation Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -6.20 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.20% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
ACC Aviation Holdings (OTCPK:CAVG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ACC Aviation Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Shai Marco Cohen | 10 percent owner | 5509 WINDMIER CIRCLE, DALLAS TX 75252 |
Mnsco, Llc | 10 percent owner | 1 BEN GURION ST., B.S.R. TOWER 2, BUEI BRAK L3 5120149 |
Oded Gilboa | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 23 AKIVA STREET, #14, RAANANA L3 4326103 |
Michael D Greenfield | director | P O B 12526, HERZLIYA PILEACH L3 46733 |
Pete Mateja | officer: CEO | 207 PIAGET AVENUE, CLIFTON NJ 07011 |
Joseph Bahat | director | 2 HABAAL-SHEM-TOV STREET, HERZLIA L3 46342 |
Jacob Enoch | director | #4 SHNITZER SHMUEL ST, TEL-AVIV L3 695 |
Edward Braniff | officer: Interim CEO & CFO | 207 PIAGET AVENUE, CLIFTON NJ 07011 |
Jerome Chaney | officer: CEO and President | 207 PIAGET AVENUE, CLIFTON NJ 07011 |
Aharon Y Levinas | director, officer: Chief Technology Officer | 8 04 ARNOT PLACE, FAIR LOAN NJ 07410 |
Tamir Levinas | director | 60 12 MAZE STREET, TEL AVIV L3 65789 |
Robert Lubin | director | TEL AVIV, TEL AVIV L3 00000 |
Amir Uziel | director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO | RISHON LEZION, RISHON LEZION L3 75749 |
Adam Jacob Somer | director, officer: Treasurer | 2753 BROADWAY 197, NEW YORK NY 10025 |
Matthew Haney | director | 1368 S ALPINE LOOP, PROVO UT 84606 |
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