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Guotai Junan International Holdings (HKSE:01788) Altman Z-Score : 0.31 (As of Apr. 28, 2024)


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What is Guotai Junan International Holdings Altman Z-Score?

The Altman Z-Score is a model designed to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. Created by American finance professor Edward Altman in 1968, the model is specifically designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with assets greater than $1 million.

Warning Sign:

Altman Z-score of 0.31 is in distress zone. This implies bankruptcy possibility in the next two years.

Guotai Junan International Holdings has a Altman Z-Score of 0.31, indicating it is in Distress Zones. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

When Altman Z-Score <= 1.8, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score >= 3, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.8 and 3, it is in Grey Zones.

The historical rank and industry rank for Guotai Junan International Holdings's Altman Z-Score or its related term are showing as below:

HKSE:01788' s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.31   Med: 0.45   Max: 1.34
Current: 0.31

During the past 13 years, Guotai Junan International Holdings's highest Altman Z-Score was 1.34. The lowest was 0.31. And the median was 0.45.


Guotai Junan International Holdings Altman Z-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Guotai Junan International Holdings's Altman Z-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

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Guotai Junan International Holdings Altman Z-Score Chart

Guotai Junan International Holdings Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Altman Z-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.36 0.33 0.34 0.32 -

Guotai Junan International Holdings Semi-Annual Data
Jun14 Dec14 Jun15 Dec15 Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23
Altman Z-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.34 - 0.32 - -

Competitive Comparison of Guotai Junan International Holdings's Altman Z-Score

For the Capital Markets subindustry, Guotai Junan International Holdings's Altman Z-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Guotai Junan International Holdings's Altman Z-Score Distribution in the Capital Markets Industry

For the Capital Markets industry and Financial Services sector, Guotai Junan International Holdings's Altman Z-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Guotai Junan International Holdings's Altman Z-Score falls into.



Guotai Junan International Holdings Altman Z-Score Calculation

Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.

Guotai Junan International Holdings's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:

Z=1.2*X1+1.4*X2+3.3*X3+0.6*X4+1.0*X5
=1.2*0.1105+1.4*0.0478+3.3*0.0148+0.6*0.0578+1.0*0.0299
=0.31

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ended in Dec. 2022:
Total Assets was HK$107,535 Mil.
Total Current Assets was HK$89,812 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was HK$77,927 Mil.
Retained Earnings was HK$5,135 Mil.
Pre-Tax Income was HK$191 Mil.
Interest Expense was HK$-1,395 Mil.
Revenue was HK$3,217 Mil.
Market Cap (Today) was HK$5,350 Mil.
Total Liabilities was HK$92,573 Mil.

* Note that for stock reported semi-annually or annually, GuruFocus uses latest annual data as the TTM data.

X1=Working Capital/Total Assets
=(Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
=(89812.402 - 77926.518)/107535.153
=0.1105

X2=Retained Earnings/Total Assets
=5135.203/107535.153
=0.0478

X3=Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
=(Pre-Tax Income - Interest Expense)/Total Assets
=(191.416 - -1395.257)/107535.153
=0.0148

X4=Market Value Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities
=Market Cap/Total Liabilities
=5350.237/92573.155
=0.0578

X5=Revenue/Total Assets
=3217.372/107535.153
=0.0299

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Distress Zones - 1.81 < Grey Zones < 2.99 - Safe Zones

Guotai Junan International Holdings has a Altman Z-Score of 0.31 indicating it is in Distress Zones.

Study by Altman found that companies that are in Distress Zone have more than 80% of chances of bankruptcy in two years.


Guotai Junan International Holdings  (HKSE:01788) Altman Z-Score Explanation

X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.

X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.

X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.

X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.

X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.

Read more about Altman Z-Score and the original research.


Be Aware

Altman Z-Score does not apply to financial companies.


Guotai Junan International Holdings Altman Z-Score Related Terms

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Guotai Junan International Holdings (HKSE:01788) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 181 Queen’s Road Central, 27th Floor, Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, Central, Hong Kong, HKG
Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company with its subsidiaries engaged in providing financial services. The company operates in five segments: corporate finance, which provides advisory services, placing & underwriting services of debts and equity securities; institutional investor services segment provides market-making, investments, structured product solutions, lending, and other services; wealth management segment provides financial services and solutions to individual investors & small to medium-sized businesses and institutions; investment management is engaged in asset management and fund management services and also includes investment in funds, debts, and equity securities; and Others segment. The vast majority of its revenue comes from Hong Kong.

Guotai Junan International Holdings (HKSE:01788) Headlines

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