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American Airlines Group (American Airlines Group) Altman Z2-Score : -1.26 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


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What is American Airlines Group Altman Z2-Score?

Altman Z2-Score, also known as Z"-Score, is used to predict the likelihood that a non-manufacturing company (excluding property/financial company) will face bankruptcy within a two-year period.

Warning Sign:

American Airlines Group has a Altman Z2-Score of -1.26, indicating it is in Distress Zones. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

When Altman Z2-Score <= 1.1, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z2-Score >= 2.6, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z2-Score is between 1.1 and 2.6, it is in Grey Zones.

The historical rank and industry rank for American Airlines Group's Altman Z2-Score or its related term are showing as below:

AAL' s Altman Z2-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.14   Med: -0.64   Max: 0.41
Current: -1.01

During the past 13 years, American Airlines Group's highest Altman Z2-Score was 0.41. The lowest was -2.14. And the median was -0.64.


American Airlines Group Altman Z2-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for American Airlines Group's Altman Z2-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

American Airlines Group Altman Z2-Score Chart

American Airlines Group Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Altman Z2-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -0.61 -2.14 -0.77 -0.92 -1.01

American Airlines Group Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Altman Z2-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -0.74 -0.45 -0.79 -1.01 -

Competitive Comparison of American Airlines Group's Altman Z2-Score

For the Airlines subindustry, American Airlines Group's Altman Z2-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z2-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


American Airlines Group's Altman Z2-Score Distribution in the Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, American Airlines Group's Altman Z2-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where American Airlines Group's Altman Z2-Score falls into.



American Airlines Group Altman Z2-Score Calculation

Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.

Z2-Score, also known as Z"-Score is the Z-Score for non-manufacturing companies excluding property/financial companies.

American Airlines Group's Altman Z2-Score for today is calculated with this formula:

Z=6.56*X1+3.26*X2+6.72*X3+1.05*X4_2
=6.56*-0.1623+3.26*-0.1243+6.72*0.0434+1.05*-0.0787
=-1.26

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z2-Score when X4_2 value is 0.

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ended in Mar. 2024:
Total Assets was $64,384 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $14,542 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $24,993 Mil.
Retained Earnings was $-8,001 Mil.
Pre-Tax Income was -413 + 32 + -690 + 1763 = $692 Mil.
Interest Expense was -497 + -519 + -537 + -548 = $-2,101 Mil.
Total Liabilities was $69,884 Mil.

* Note that for stock reported semi-annually or annually, GuruFocus uses latest annual data as the TTM data.

X1=Working Capital/Total Assets
=(Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
=(14542 - 24993)/64384
=-0.1623

X2=Retained Earnings/Total Assets
=-8001/64384
=-0.1243

X3=Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
=(Pre-Tax Income - Interest Expense)/Total Assets
=(692 - -2101)/64384
=0.0434

X4_2=Net Worth/Total Liabilities
=(Total Stockholders Equity - Preferred Stock)/Total Liabilities
=(-5500 - 0)/69884
=-0.0787

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Distress Zones - 1.1 < Grey Zones < 2.6 - Safe Zones

American Airlines Group has a Altman Z2-Score of -1.26 indicating it is in Distress Zones.


American Airlines Group  (NAS:AAL) Altman Z2-Score Explanation

The original Z-Score model was based on publicly traded manufacturing companies while the Z2-Score, also known as Z"-score can be used for any type of company excluding property/financial companies. Both Z-Score and Z2-Score describes the financial health of a company, and its likelihood of financial distress.

X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.

X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.

X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.

X4_2, Net Worth (Total Stockholders Equity - Preferred Stock)/Total Liabilities (NW/TL): it compares a company’s stock net worth with its total liabilities and can be used to assess the extent of its reliance on debt.

Read more about Altman Z2-Score, the original research on Z-Score and the additional research on Z2-Score.


Be Aware

Altman Z2-Score does not apply to financial companies.


American Airlines Group Altman Z2-Score Related Terms

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American Airlines Group (American Airlines Group) Business Description

Address
1 Skyview Drive, Fort Worth, TX, USA, 76155
American Airlines is the world's largest airline by aircraft, capacity, and scheduled revenue passenger miles. Its major U.S. hubs are Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. It generates over 30% of U.S. airline revenue connecting Latin America with destinations in the United States. After completing a major fleet renewal, the company has the youngest fleet of U.S. legacy carriers.
Executives
Vasu Raja officer: SVP, Chief Commercial Officer C/O AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC., 1 SKYVIEW DRIVE, FORT WORTH TX 76155
Douglas M Steenland director 2700 LONE OAK PARKWAY, EAGAN MN 55121
Angela Owens officer: VP Corporate Controller C/O AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC., 1 SKYVIEW DRIVE, FORT WORTH TX 76155
David Seymour officer: SVP Chief Operating Officer C/O AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC., 1 SKYVIEW DRIVE, FORT WORTH TX 76155
Devon E May officer: EVP Chief Financial Officer C/O AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC., 1 SKYVIEW DRIVE, FORT WORTH TX 76155
Vicente Reynal director C/O INGERSOLL RAND INC., 525 HARBOUR PLACE DRIVE, SUITE 600, DAVIDSON NC 28036
Priya Aiyar officer: See remarks C/O AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC., 1 SKYVIEW DRIVE, FORT WORTH TX 76155
Gregory D Smith director 100 N RIVERSIDE PLAZA, M/C 3005-1001, CHICAGO IL 60606-1596
Adriane M Brown director 3150 139TH AVENUE S.E., BELLEVUE WA 98040
John T Cahill director LEGG MASON, INC., 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Michael J Embler director C/O NMI HOLDINGS, INC., 2100 POWELL STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
James F Albaugh director C/O THE BOEING COMPANY, 100 NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, CHICAGO IL 60606
Isom Robert D Jr officer: See Remarks 1689 NONCONNAH BLVD, SUITE 111, MEMPHIS TN 38132
Ray M Robinson director 1170 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2300, ATLANTA GA 30309
Maya Leibman officer: EVP Chief Information Officer 4333 AMON CARTER BLVD, FORT WORTH TX 76155