Xylem (XYL) Predictability Rank

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What is Xylem Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Xylem Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Xylem (XYL) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Xylem Inc (NYSE:XYL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

XY6:Germany XY6:Germany XY6:Germany

Address

300 Water Street SE, Washington, DC, USA, 20003

Website

https://www.xylem.com

Xylem is a global leader in water technology and offers a wide range of solutions, including the transport, treatment, testing, and efficient use of water for customers in the utility, industrial, commercial, and residential sectors. Xylem was spun off from ITT in 2011. Based in Rye Brook, New York, Xylem has a presence in over 150 countries and employs 16,200. The company generated $5.5 billion in revenue and $672 million in adjusted operating income in 2022.

Executives

Victoria D Harker	director	4300 WILSON BOULEVARD, ARLINGTON VA 22203
William K Grogan	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	3100 SANDERS ROAD, SUITE 301, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Patrick Decker	director, officer: President & CEO	9 ROSZEL ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Rodney Aulick	officer: SVP & President, IS&S	EVOQUA WATER TECHNOLOGIES CORP., 210 SIXTH AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Lisa Glatch	director	EVOQUA WATER TECHNOLOGIES CORP., 210 SIXTH AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Lynn C Swann	director	C/O AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT, 23975 PARK SORRENTO, SUITE 300, CALABASAS CA 91302
Earl Ray Ellis	director	ONE LIBERTY PLAZA, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Hayati Yarkadas	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O TRINSEO S.A., 1000 CHESTERBROOK BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, BERWYN PA 19312
Michael J. Mcgann	officer: Senior Vice President	301 WATER STREET, SUITE 200, WASHINGTON DC 20003
Matthew Francis Pine	officer: Senior Vice President	XYLEM INC., 1 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, RYE BROOK NY 10573
Claudia S Toussaint	officer: SVP, GC & Corporate Secretary	5454 W 110TH STREET, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Jeanne Beliveau-dunn	director	C/O XYLEM INC., 1 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, RYE BROOK NY 10573
Franz Cerwinka	officer: SVP and President, Emerging Ma	XYLEM INC., 1 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, RYE BROOK NY 10573
Sabol Colin R	officer: SVP & Chief Strategy Officer	9921 MONTIANO DRIVE, NAPLES FL 34113
Surya N Mohapatra	director	3 GIRALDA FARMS, MADISON NJ 07940