XPO (XPO) Predictability Rank

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What is XPO Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

XPO Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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XPO (XPO) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » XPO Inc (NYSE:XPO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

XPO:Mexico UX2A:Germany

Address

Five American Lane, Greenwich, CT, USA, 06831

Website

https://www.xpo.com

Following the spinoff of its contract logistics division (GXO) in 2021 and freight brokerage operations (RXO) in 2022, XPO is moving closer to becoming a pure-play asset-based less-than-truckload carrier. On a pro forma basis for the November RXO spinoff, We estimate LTL shipping now makes up 60% of total revenue, with XPO's European truckload and LTL operations making up 40%. That said, XPO's LTL segment EBITDA mix is much higher than 60%. We believe XPO intends to divest its European trucking division once it finds the right buyer.

Executives

Mario A Harik	officer: Chief Information Officer	C/O XPO, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
J Wes Frye	director	C/O XPO, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
Kyle Wismans	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O XPO, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
Allison Landry	director	C/O XPO, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
David J. Bates	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O XPO, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
Wendy Cassity	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O XPO, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
Anderson Carl Douglas Ii	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O XPO, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
Bella Loykhter Allaire	director	880 CARILLON PARKWAY, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33716
Irene Moshouris	director	C/O XPO, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
Farhad Nanji	10 percent owner	C/O HIGHFIELDS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
S Jacobs Bradley	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O XPO, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
Mfn Partners Management, Llc	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Mfn Partners Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Michael Demichele	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Mfn Partners, Lp	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116