Warby Parker (Warby Parker) Predictability Rank

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What is Warby Parker Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Warby Parker Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Warby Parker (Warby Parker) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Warby Parker Inc (NYSE:WRBY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

233 Spring Street, 6th Floor East, New York, NY, USA, 10013

Website

https://www.warbyparker.com

Warby Parker Inc is engaged in designing and developing designer prescription glasses and contacts to eye exams and vision tests. Brand that operates at the intersection of design, technology, healthcare, and social enterprise. The company primarily derives revenue from the sales of eyewear products, optical services, and accessories. The firm sells products and services through its stores, website, and mobile apps. Revenue generated from eyewear products includes the sales of prescription and non-prescription optical glasses and sunglasses, contact lenses, eyewear accessories, and expedited shipping charges.

Executives

Steven Clive Miller	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O WARBY PARKER INC., 233 SPRING STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
David Abraham Gilboa	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	C/O WARBY PARKER INC., 233 SPRING STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Neil Harris Blumenthal	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	C/O WARBY PARKER INC., 233 SPRING STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Durable Capital Partners Lp	10 percent owner	4747 BETHESDA AVENUE, SUITE #1002, BETHESDA MD 20814
Teresa Briggs	director	2225 LAWSON LANE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Ronald A Williams	director
Jeffrey Jacob Raider	director	C/O WARBY PARKER INC., 233 SPRING STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Andrew Hunt	director	C/O ELEPHANT PARTNERS, 11 NEWBURY STREET, 5TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
D1 Capital Partners L.p.	10 percent owner	9 WEST 57TH STREET, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Joel E Cutler	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GENERAL CATALYST PARTNERS, 20 UNIVERSITY ROAD, SUITE 450, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Youngme E Moon	director	75 NETWORK DRIVE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Daniel S. Sundheim	10 percent owner	C/O D1 CAPITAL PARTNERS L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
General Catalyst Group V Lp	10 percent owner	c/o General Catalyst Group Management LL, 20 University Road Ste 450, Cambridge MA 02138
Gabrielle Sulzberger	director	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, FLOOR 13, NEW YORK NY 10017
General Catalyst Group Management Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	20 UNIVERSITY ROAD, 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138