Wabash National (Wabash National) Predictability Rank

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What is Wabash National Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Wabash National Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Wabash National (Wabash National) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery » Wabash National Corp (NYSE:WNC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WA9:Germany

Address

3900 McCarty Lane, Lafayette, IN, USA, 47905

Website

https://ir.onewabash.com

Wabash National Corp operates as the innovation leader of connected solutions for the transportation, logistics and distribution industries. The company's mission is to enable customers to succeed with breakthrough ideas and solutions that help them move everything from the first to the final mile. It designs and manufactures a diverse range of products, including dry freight and refrigerated trailers, platform trailers, tank trailers, dry and refrigerated truck bodies, structural composite panels and products, trailer aerodynamic solutions, and specialty food-grade processing equipment.

Executives

Larry J Magee	director	1000 SAGAMORE PARKWAY SOUTH, LAFAYETTE IN 47905
Mary Kristin Glazner	officer: SVP Chief HR Officer	1000 SAGAMORE PARKWAY SOUTH, LAFAYETTE IN 47905
Michael N Pettit	officer: SVP - Group President, FMP	1000 SAGAMORE PARKWAY SOUTH, LAFAYETTE IN 47905
Dustin T Smith	officer: SVP and Group President, CTP	1000 SAGAMORE PARKWAY SOUTH, LAFAYETTE IN 47905
Kevin J Page	officer: SVP and Group President, DPG	1000 SAGAMORE PARKWAY SOUTH, LAFAYETTE IN 47905
Brent L Yeagy	officer: Pres. of Commercial Trailer	1000 SAGAMORE PARKWAY SOUTH, LAFAYETTE IN 47905
Sudhanshu Shekhar Priyadarshi	director	6425 HALL OF FAME LANE, FRISCO TX 75034
Trent Broberg	director	3900 MCCARTY LANE, LAFAYETTE IN 47905
John E Kunz	director	522 N. MACEWEN DRIVE, OSPREY FL 34229
John G. Boss	director	260 HUDSON RIVER ROAD, WATERFORD NY 12188
Therese M Bassett	director	2211 SOUTH 47TH STREET, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Taylor Stuart A Ii	director
Andrew C Boynton	director	FULTON HALL 510, 140 COMMONWEALTH AVENUE, CHESTNUT HILL MA 02467
Melanie Margolin	officer: SVP and General Counsel	1000 SAGAMORE PARKWAY SOUTH, LAFAYETTE IN 47905
Richard J Giromini	officer: Senior Vice President - COO