Cactus (Cactus) Predictability Rank

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What is Cactus Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cactus Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cactus (Cactus) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Cactus Inc (NYSE:WHD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

920 Memorial City Way, Suite 300, Houston, TX, USA, 77024

Website

https://www.cactuswhd.com

Cactus Inc is engaged in the designing, manufacturing, and sale of wellheads and pressure control equipment. Its principal products include Cactus SafeDrill wellhead systems, frac stacks, zipper manifolds, and production trees. The company also provides mission-critical field services, including service crews to assist with the installation, maintenance, and safe handling of the wellhead and pressure control equipment, as well as repair services for equipment that it sells or rents. It sells or rents its products principally for onshore unconventional oil and gas wells that are utilized during the drilling, completion (including fracturing), and production.

Executives

Scott Bender	director, officer: President, CEO	ONE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 200, HOUSTON TX 77046
Joel Bender	director, officer: COO, Senior VP and Sec	ONE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 200, HOUSTON TX 77046
Steven Bender	officer: VP of Operations	ONE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 200, HOUSTON TX 77046
William D Marsh	officer: GC, VP of Admin. and Secretary	2929 ALLEN PARKWAY, SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77019
John A Odonnell	director	2929 ALLEN PARKWAY, SUITE 2100, HOUSTON TX 77019
Bruce M Rothstein	director	800 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, SUITE 617 NORTH, RYE BROOK NY 10573
Stephen Tadlock	officer: VP of Corporate Services	COBALT CENTER 920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77024
Donna L Anderson	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	10811 S. WESTVIEW CIRCLE DRIVE, BUILDING C, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77043
Michael Y Mcgovern	director	700 LOUISIANA, STE 4300, HOUSTON TX 77002
Alan Semple	director	ONE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 200, HOUSTON TX 77046
Gary L Rosenthal	director	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 4620, HOUSTON TX 77002
David John Isaac	officer: GC and VP of Administration	920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77024
Tymothi O. Tombar	director	2713 CRAWFORD ST., HOUSTON TX 77004
Cadent Energy Partners Ii Lp	director	800 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, SUITE 617 NORTH, RYE BROOK NY 10573
Melissa Law	director	920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77024