What is Workday Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Workday Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Workday (Workday) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6110 Stoneridge Mall Road, Pleasanton, CA, USA, 94588
Workday is a software company that offers human capital management, or HCM, financial management, and business planning solutions. Known for being a cloud-only software provider, Workday is headquartered in Pleasanton, California. Founded in 2005, Workday now employs over 12,000 employees.
Executives
| David A Duffield |
10 percent owner |
C/O WORKDAY, INC., 6230 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
| Sayan Chakraborty |
officer: Co-President |
6110 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
| Richard Harry Sauer |
officer: EVP, General Counsel & Secty |
6110 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
| James Bozzini |
officer: Senior Vice President |
6230 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
| Aneel Bhusri |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-CEO and Chairman |
|
| Douglas A. Robinson |
officer: Co-President |
6110 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
| Zane Rowe |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1600 SMITH STREET, HQSEO, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Still George J Jr |
director |
NORWEST VENTURE PARTNERS, 525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 800, PALO ALTO CA 94301 |
| Carl M. Eschenbach |
director |
C/O SEQUOIA CAPITAL, 2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, PALO ALTO CA 94025 |
| Christa Davies |
director |
AON CORPORATE LAW DEPT, 200 EAST RANDOLPH ST, 8TH FL, CHICAGO IL 60601 |
| Barbara A Larson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
6110 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
| Mark J Hawkins |
director |
C/O LOGITECH, INC., 6505 KAISER DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94555 |
| Robynne Sisco |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
3401 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Gomez Luciano Fernandez |
officer: Co-President |
1A SHAWFIELD STREET,, RICHARDSON HOUSE, LONDON X0 SW3 4BA |
| Frederick Wayne A.i. |
director |
500 W MAIN ST., LOUISVILLE KY 40202 |
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