Wayfair (Wayfair) Predictability Rank

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What is Wayfair Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Wayfair Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Wayfair (Wayfair) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Wayfair Inc (NYSE:W) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

W:Mexico 1WF:Germany 1WF:Germany W2YF34:Brazil

Address

4 Copley Place, Boston, MA, USA, 02116

Website

https://www.wayfair.com

Wayfair engages in e-commerce in the United States (86% of 2022 sales), Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Ireland. At the end of 2022, the firm offered more than 40 million products from more than 20,000 suppliers under the brands Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Perigold. Its offerings include furniture, everyday and seasonal decor, decorative accents, housewares, and other home goods. Wayfair was founded in 2002 and began trading publicly in 2014.

Executives

Niraj Shah	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O WAYFAIR INC., 4 COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02116
Steven Conine	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O WAYFAIR INC., 4 COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02116
Thomas Netzer	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O WAYFAIR INC., 4 COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02116
Jon Blotner	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O WAYFAIR INC., 4 COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02116
Kate Gulliver	officer: CFO and Chief Admin Officer	4 COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02116
Fiona Tan	officer: Chief Technology Officer	41 DISCOVERY, IRVINE CA 92618
Anke Schaferkordt	director	C/O WAYFAIR INC., 4 COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02116
Steve Oblak	officer: SVP and GM, Wayfair.com	C/O WAYFAIR INC., 4 COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02116
Michael D Fleisher	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O WAYFAIR INC., 4 COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02116
Michael W. Choe	director	C/O CHARLESBANK CAPITAL PARTNERS, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 54TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
James R. Miller	director	4050 EAST COTTON CENTER BLVD. 6-68, PHOENIX AZ 85040
Jeremy King	director	C/O WAYFAIR LLC, 4 COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02116
Michael Andrew Kumin	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GREAT HILL PARTNERS, L.P., 200 CLARENDON STREET, 29TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Edmond Macri	officer: SVP, Marketing and Analytics	C/O WAYFAIR INC., 4 COPLEY PLACE, BOSTON MA 02116
Michael E Sneed	director	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933