Valvoline (Valvoline) Predictability Rank

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What is Valvoline Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Valvoline Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Valvoline (Valvoline) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Valvoline Inc (NYSE:VVV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0V4:Germany

Address

100 Valvoline Way, Suite 100, Lexington, KY, USA, 40509

Website

https://www.valvoline.com

Valvoline Inc produces, markets, and sells automotive maintenance products, particularly lubricants, to retail outlets installers, and customers. The company offers various products such as engine oil, heavy-duty engine oil, motorcycle oil, grease and brake fluid, and others. Geographically, the majority of the revenue is generated from the United States of America.

Executives

Julie Marie O'daniel	officer: Gen Counsel, Corp Secy and SVP	3499 BLAZER PARKWAY, LEXINGTON KY 40509
Robert Travis Dobbins	officer: SVP & Chief Technology Officer	100 VALVOLINE WAY, LEXINGTON KY 40509
Linne Fulcher	officer: Chief Operating Officer	100 VALVOLINE WAY, SUITE 100, LEXINGTON KY 40509-2714
Richard Joseph Freeland	director	927 JUNCO DRIVE, COLUMBUS IN 47201
Lori Ann Flees	officer: SVP and Pres., Retail Services	100 VALVOLINE WAY, LEXINGTON KY 40509
Mary E Meixelsperger	officer: Chief Financial Officer	810 DSW DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43219
Vada O Manager	director	NIKE, INC, ONE BOWERMAN DRIVE, BEAVERTON OR 97005
Patrick Pacious	director	1 CHOICE HOTELS CIRCLE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Heidi J. Matheys	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	3499 BLAZER PARKWAY, LEXINGTON KY 40509
Dione Sturgeon	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	100 VALVOLINE WAY, LEXINGTON KY 40509
Michael S. Ryan	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1000 EAST HANES MILL ROAD, WINSTON SALEM NC 27105
Gerrald Thomas A. Ii	officer: Senior Vice President	3499 BLAZER PARKWAY, LEXINGTON KY 40509
Jennifer Lynn Slater	director	5757 N GREEN BAY AVENUE FLORIST, TOWER MILWAUKEE WI 53209
Jamal K Muashsher	officer: SVP, International	100 VALVOLINE WAY, LEXINGTON KY 40509
Anthony R. Puckett	officer: President, Quick Lubes	3499 BLAZER PARKWAY, LEXINGTON KY 40509