Vishay Precision Group (Vishay Precision Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Vishay Precision Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vishay Precision Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vishay Precision Group (Vishay Precision Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Vishay Precision Group Inc (NYSE:VPG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3 Great Valley Parkway, Suite 150, Malvern, PA, USA, 19355

Website

https://www.vpgsensors.com

Vishay Precision Group Inc manufactures and markets sensors, and sensor-based measurement systems, as well as specialty resistors and strain gages based on proprietary technology. The company provides precision products and solutions, many of which are designed-in by customers, specializing in the growing markets of stress, force, weight, pressure, and current measurements. The company reports in three product segments: Sensors segment, Weighing Solutions segment, and Measurement Systems segment. It has a business presence in the United States and other countries. It generates majority revenue from United States.

Executives

Wes Cummins	director	4505 LORRAINE AVE, DALLAS TX 75205
William M Clancy	officer: Exec. VP/CFO	3 GREAT VALLEY PKWY, MALVERN PA 19355
Bruce A. Lerner	director	C/O VISHAY PRECISION GROUP, INC., 3 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 150, MALVERN PA 19355
Saul Reibstein	director	C/O VISHAY PRECISION GROUP, INC., 3 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 150, MALVERN PA 19355
Janet M Clarke	director	EXPRESSJET HOLDINGS, INC., 700 N SAM HOUSTON PRKWY W, SUITE 200, HOUSTON TX 77067
Marc Zandman	director	C/O VISHAY INTERTECHNOLOGY, INC., 63 LINCOLN HIGHWAY, MALVERN PA 19355
Timothy Talbert	director	3152 CASWELL DR, TROY MI 48084
Amir Tal	officer: SVP and CAO	C/O VISHAY PRECISION GROUP, INC., 3 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 150, MALVERN PA 19355
Sejal Shah Gulati	director	C/O VISHAY PRECISION GROUP, INC., 3 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 150, MALVERN PA 19355
Ziv Shoshani	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O VISHAY INTERTECHNOLOGY, INC., 63 LANCASTER AVE, MALVERN PA 19355
Nokomis Capital, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	1717 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 850, DALLAS TX 75202
Cary B Wood	director	425 NORTH MARTINGALE ROAD, SUITE 1000, SCHAUMBURG IL 60173
Roland B Desilets	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	3 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 150, MALVERN PA 19355
Brett Hendrickson	10 percent owner	300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1740, DALLAS TX 75201
Samuel Broydo	director	C/O VISHAY PRECISION GROUP, INC., 3 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 150, MALVERN PA 19355