What is VOXX International Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
VOXX International Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
VOXX International (VOXX International) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2351 J. Lawson Boulevard, Orlando, FL, USA, 32824
VOXX International Corp manufacturer and distributor in the Automotive Electronics, Consumer Electronics, and Biometrics industries. The consumer electronic products primarily consist of finished goods sold to retail and commercial customers, consisting of premium audio and other consumer electronic products. Automotive products, some of which are manufactured by the Company, are sold both to OEM and aftermarket customers. Biometric products, primarily consisting of finished goods, are sold to retail and commercial customers.
Executives
| Beat Kahli |
10 percent owner |
AVALON GROUP INTERNATIONAL, LLC, 3801 AVALON PARK EAST BLVD., STE 400, ORLANDO FL 32828 |
| Steven R Downing |
director |
14814 CREEK EDGE DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424 |
| Peter A Lesser |
director |
C/O AUDIOVOX CORP, 180 MARCUS BLVD., HAUPPAUGE NY 11788-0518 |
| Patrick M Lavelle |
director, officer: Senior Vice President |
150 MARCUS BLVD, PO BOX 18000, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788 |
| John J Shalam |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and C.E.O. |
180 MARCUS BLVD, PO BOX 12427, HAUPPAGE NY 11788-0518 |
| Holding Ag Kahli |
10 percent owner |
RIESBACHSTRASSE 57, ZURICH V8 8008 |
| Edward David Mas |
officer: President Voxx Automotive Corp |
C/O VOXX INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, 180 MARCUS BOULEVARD, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788 |
| John Jr Adamovich |
director |
180 MARCUS BLVD, C/O VOXX INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788 |
| Kreuch Paul C Jr |
director |
C/O 180 MARCUS BLVD., PO BOX 12427, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788-0518 |
| Ari Shalam |
director |
C/O AUDIOVOX CORP, 150 MARCUS BLVD, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788 |
| Denise W. Gibson |
director |
140 SCHOOL STREET, LIBERTYVILLE IL 60048 |
| Oscar Leonard Bernardo |
officer: COO Klipsch Group Inc. |
C/O VOXX INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, 180 MARCUS BLVD, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788 |
| Ian Sebastian Geise |
officer: President Voxx Accessories |
C/O VOXX INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, 180 MARCUS BLVD, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788 |
| Michael F Klipsch |
officer: Pres. Global Operations of KGI |
180 MARCUS BOULEVARD, C/O AUDIOVOX CORPORATION, HAUPPAUGE X1 11788 |
| Ludwig Geis |
officer: CEO VOXX Hirschmann Corp |
STUTTGARTER STRASSE 45 - 51, NECKARTENZLINGEN 2M 72654 |
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