Vornado Realty Trust (Vornado Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Vornado Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vornado Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vornado Realty Trust (Vornado Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VNOpO.PFD:USA VNOPN.PFD:USA VNOpM.PFD:USA VNORP.PFD:USA VNOpL.PFD:USA VO7:Germany V1NO34:Brazil

Address

888 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

https://www.vno.com

Vornado owns and has an ownership interest in Class A office and retail properties highly concentrated in Manhattan, with additional properties in San Francisco and Chicago. It operates as a real estate investment trust.

Executives

Michael D Fascitelli	director, officer: President	MDF CAPITAL, 888 7TH AVENUE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Wight Russell B Jr	director
Raymond J Mcguire	director	5 GIRALDA FARMS, MADISON NJ 07940
Deirdre K. Maddock	officer: SVP - Chief Accounting Officer	210 ROUTE 4 EAST, 210 W RTE 4 EAST, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Beatrice Hamza Bassey	director	2188 LEDGE ROCK LANE, HENDERSON NV 89052
William W Helman	director	GREYLOCK, 880 WINTER ST SUITE 300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Barry Langer	officer: EVP - Dev. Co-Head of R.E.	C/O VORNADO REALTY TRUST, 888 7TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Glen J. Weiss	officer: EVP- Off Leasing Co- Head R.E.	C/O VORNADO REALTY TRUST, 888 7TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Haim Chera	officer: EVP- Head of Retail	C/O VORNADO REALTY TRUST, 888 7TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Joseph Macnow	officer: Exec. VP--Finance, CFO
Matthew Iocco	officer: EVP - Principal Accounting Off	888 7TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Mitchell N Schear	officer: President - Smith Division
Mandakini Puri	director	C/O VALIDUS HOLDINGS, 48 PAR-LA-VILLE ROAD, SUITE 1790, HAMILTON HM11 D0 HM11
Daniel R Tisch	director	460 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Wendy Silverstein	officer: Exec VP-Capital Markets