Victory Capital Holdings (Victory Capital Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Victory Capital Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Victory Capital Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Victory Capital Holdings (Victory Capital Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Victory Capital Holdings Inc (NAS:VCTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3PK:Germany

Address

15935 La Cantera Parkway, San Antonio, TX, USA, 78256

Website

https://www.vcm.com

Victory Capital Holdings Inc is an independent investment management firm. The company operates its business through franchises and solutions platform. It provides centralized distribution, marketing, and operations infrastructure to the company's franchises and solutions platform. The company operates through one business segment that is Investment management services and products to institutional, intermediary, retirement platforms, and individual investors. The franchises and solutions platform manages a variety of investment strategies for its customers. It derives revenues from asset-based fees from investment management products and services to individuals and institutions.

Executives

David Craig Brown	officer: Chairman and CEO	4900 TIEDEMAN ROAD, BROOKLYN OH 44144
Kelly Stevenson Cliff	officer: See Remarks	4900 TIEDMAN ROAD, BROOKLYN OH 44144
Mary M. Jackson	director	7799 LEESBURG PIKE, SUITE 300 NORTH, FALLS CHURCH VA 22043
James B Hawkes	director	255 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Delaney Robert V. Jr.	director	667 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065
Crestview Partners Ii Gp, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Milton R. Berlinski	director, 10 percent owner	C/O REVERENCE, 477 MADISON AVENUE, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Richard M Demartini	director	BANK OF AMERICA CORP, 9 WEST 57TH STREET NY1-301-48-02, NEW YORK NY 10019
Michael Dennis Policarpo	officer: See Remarks	4900 TIEDMAN ROAD, BROOKLYN OH 44144
Nina Gupta	officer: See Remarks	4900 TIEDEMAN ROAD, BROOKLYN OH 44144
Alan Rappaport	director	C/O PIMCO, 650 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Lawrence Davanzo	director	1299 OCEAN AVENUE, SUITE 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Terence Francis Sullivan	officer: CFO and Head of Strategy	4900 TIEDMAN ROAD, BROOKLYN OH 44144
Rcp Lake Co-invest, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O REVERENCE CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC, 399 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Hurst Robert J/ny	director	C/O GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC, 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004