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Marriott Vacations Worldwide (Marriott Vacations Worldwide) Predictability Rank


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What is Marriott Vacations Worldwide Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Marriott Vacations Worldwide (Marriott Vacations Worldwide) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp (NYSE:VAC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PENN MLCO HGV RRR MCRI PLYA MSC BYD GDEN BVH LVS HKSE:00027 HKSE:01928 MGM WYNN CZR MTN SGX:G13 HKSE:02282 HKSE:01128
Traded in Other Exchanges
VAC:Mexico M8V:Germany M8V:Germany
Address
9002 San Marco Court, Orlando, FL, USA, 32819
Website
https://www.marriottvacationsworldwide.com
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp functions in the United States leisure industry. It owns and manages a cluster of resorts and accommodation facilities under trademarks like Marriott Vacation Club, Grand Residencies, and The Ritz-Carlton Destination Club predominantly in the United States. Some of its properties are also spread across Europe and Asia Pacific. Marriott's major revenue components include the sale of vacation ownership products such as luxurious vacation packages. In addition, it offers purchase money financing to the end users of its core services. The company operates in two reportable segments: Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. The majority of revenue is derived from the Vacation Ownership segment.
Executives
Jason P Marino officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer 9002 SAN MARCO COURT, ORLANDO FL 32819
Anthony E Terry officer: EVP, CFO 9002 SAN MARCO COURT, ORLANDO FL 32819
Geller John E Jr officer: Exec. VP and CFO 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Raman Bukkapatnam officer: EVP & CIO 9002 SAN MARCO COURT, ORLANDO FL 32819
Dwight D. Smith officer: Sr. VP & CIO 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Stephanie Sobeck Butera officer: EVP & COO of HVO 9002 SAN MARCO CT, ORLANDO FL 32819
Michael E. Yonker officer: Sr. VP & Chief HR Officer 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Lizabeth Kane-hanan officer: Exec. VP & Chief Growth & Inv. 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Kathleen A. Pighini officer: SVP and CAO 9002 SAN MARCO COURT, ORLANDO FL 32819
Jonice Gray Tucker director 9002 SAN MARCO COURT, ORLANDO FL 32819
R. Lee Cunningham officer: Exec VP & COO-N.Am & Carribean 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Melquiades R. Martinez director 450 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, SUITE 250, ORLANDO FL 32801-3443
Hunter James H. Iv officer: Exec. VP & General Counsel 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Brian E. Miller officer: ExecVP-Sales,Marketing&ServOp 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Stephen P Weisz director, officer: President & CEO 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821