Universal Insurance Holdings (Universal Insurance Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Universal Insurance Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Universal Insurance Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Universal Insurance Holdings (Universal Insurance Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Universal Insurance Holdings Inc (NYSE:UVE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5UI:Germany

Address

1110 West Commercial Boulevard, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA, 33309

Website

https://www.universalinsuranceholdings.com

Universal Insurance Holdings Inc is a private personal residential homeowner insurance company. The company all aspects of insurance underwriting, policy issuance, general administration and claims processing and settlement internally through our vertically integrated operations. It generates revenues primarily from the collection of premiums. It operates within Florida and across the United States.

Executives

Sean P Downes	director	2875 N.E. 191ST, SUITE 300, MIAMI FL 33180
Stephen Donaghy	director, officer: CEO	UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC., 1110 WEST COMMERCIAL BOULEVARD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Michael Pietrangelo	director	6410 POPLAR AVE, STE 190, MIMPHIS TN 38119
Gary Lloyd Ropiecki	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	1110 W. COMMERCIAL BLVD., FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Jon Springer	director, officer: President and CRO	UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC., 1110 WEST COMMERCIAL BOULEVARD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Shannon A Brown	director	1001 TILLMAN STREET, MEMPHIS TN 38112
Mccahill Francis Xavier Iii	director	1314 SOUTH RAMONA AVENUE, INDIALANTIC FL 32903
Scott P. Callahan	director	1110 W. COMMERCIAL BLVD., SUITE 100, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Joel Wilentz	director	5811 SW 33RD TERR, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33312
Ozzie A Schindler	director	1451 STILLWATER DRIVE, MIAMI BEACH FL 33141-1031
Richard D Peterson	director	1110 WEST COMMERCIAL BOULEVARD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Marlene Gordon	director	C/O FRESH DEL MONTE PRODUCE INC.,, PO BOX 149222, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Frank Wilcox	officer: CFO, Principal Acct. Officer	1110 W. COMMERCIAL BLVD., SUITE 100, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Kimberly D Campos	director, officer: CIO & CAO	1110 WEST COMMERCIAL BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Ralph J. Palmieri	director	1110 WEST COMMERCIAL BOULEVARD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309