What is United Natural Foods Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
United Natural Foods Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
United Natural Foods (United Natural Foods) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
313 Iron Horse Way, Providence, RI, USA, 02908
United Natural Foods Inc is a wholesale distributor of natural, organic and specialty foods and nonfood products across North America. The company's products consist of national, regional and private label brands grouped into grocery and general merchandise, produce, perishables and frozen foods, nutritional supplements and sports nutrition, bulk and foodservice products, and personal care items. United Natural Foods serves various retail formats including conventional supermarket chains, natural product superstores, independent retail operators and foodservice channels such as e-commerce platforms. The company's operations are comprised of principal divisions: the wholesale division; the retail division; and other.
Executives
| Andre Persaud |
officer: President and CEO, Retail |
30 HUNTER LANE, CAMP HILL PA 17011 |
| Bates Ann Torre |
director |
300 CONTINENTAL DRIVE, NEWARK DE 19713 |
| John W Howard |
officer: Interim CFO |
313 IRON HORSE WAY, PROVIDENCE RI 02908 |
| Douglas J Alexander Jr |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
3925 BROOKSIDE PARKWAY, ALPHARETTA GA 30022 |
| Lynn S. Blake |
director |
250 WEST 34TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, C/O WISDOMTREE INVESTMENTS, INC., NEW YORK NY 10119 |
| James M Loree |
director |
1000 STANLEY DRIVE, NEW BRITAIN CT 06053 |
| James C Pappas |
director |
1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1320, HOUSTON TX 77027 |
| Erin Horvath |
officer: COO |
313 IRON HORSE WAY, C/O IRON HORSE WAY, PROVIDENCE RI 02908 |
| Danielle Benedict |
officer: SVP, Human Resources |
313 IRON HORSE WAY, PROVIDENCE RI 02908 |
| Christopher P. Testa |
officer: President, Blue Marble Brands |
C/O UNITED NATURAL FOODS, INC., 313 IRON HORSE WAY, PROVIDENCE RI 02908 |
| Richard Eric Esper |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
8501 WILLIAMS ROAD, ESTERO FL 33928 |
| Mahrukh Hussain |
officer: General Counsel and Corp. Sec. |
313 IRON HORSE WAY, PROVIDENCE RI 02908 |
| Louis Anthony Martin |
officer: CSTO |
313 IRON HORSE WAY, PROVIDENCE RI 02908 |
| Matthew T Echols |
officer: CCAO |
313 IRON HORSE WAY, PROVIDENCE RI 02908 |
| Mohammad Shamim |
director |
12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238 |
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