Ultra Clean Holdings (Ultra Clean Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Ultra Clean Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ultra Clean Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ultra Clean Holdings (Ultra Clean Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (NAS:UCTT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UCE:Germany

Address

26462 Corporate Avenue, Hayward, CA, USA, 94545

Website

https://www.uct.com

Ultra Clean Holdings Inc, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies production tools, modules, and subsystems for the semiconductor capital equipment industry. The product includes precision robotic solutions, gas delivery systems, and a variety of industrial and automation production equipment products; subsystems include wafer cleaning subsystems, chemical delivery modules, top-plate assemblies, frame assemblies, and process modules. Its customer base includes firms in the semiconductor capital equipment industry, medical, energy, industrial, flat panel, and research equipment industries. It has two segments Products and Services. Its principal markets are North America, Asia, and Europe. Its largest end markets by revenue are the United States and the International market.

Executives

Paul Yoonku Cho	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC., 26462 CORPORATE AVENUE, HAYWARD CA 94545
Jeffrey L. Mckibben	officer: Chief Information Officer	C/O ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC., 26462 CORPORATE AVENUE, HAYWARD, CA 94545
Jamie J. Palfrey	officer: SVP, Global Human Resources	ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC., 26462 CORPORATE AVENUE, HAYWARD CA 94545
Bill Bentinck	officer: Pres, Semiconductor Svcs Bus.	C/O ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC., 26462 CORPORATE AVE, HAYWARD CA 94545
Emily M Liggett	director
Sheri Brumm	officer: SVP, Finance & CAO	C/O ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC., 26462 CORPORATE AVENUE, HAYWARD CA 94545
Vijayan S. Chinnasami	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC., 26462 CORPORATE AVENUE, HAYWARD CA 94545
Brian E Harding	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	27700 SW PARKWAY AVE, WILSONVILLE OR 97070
Jacqueline A. Seto	director	C/O ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC., 26462 CORPORATE AVENUE, HAYWARD CA 94545
James P Scholhamer	director, officer: CEO	9586I-25 FRONTAGE ROAD, LONGMONT CO 80504
Christopher S Cook	officer: President, Products Div	ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC., 26462 CORPORATE AVENUE, HAYWARD CA 94545
David T Ibnale	director	150 INDEPENDENCE DR, C/O ULTRA CLEAN, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Clarence L Granger	director, officer: President, CEO, COO	150 INDEPENDENCE DR, C/O ULTRA CLEAN, MENLO PARK CA 94025
William Joe Williams	officer: SVP, Customer Business Mgmt	ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC., 26462 CORPORATE AVE, HAYWARD CA 94545
Barbara Vaughn Scherer	director	337 ENCINAL ST, SANTA CRUZ CA 95060