The Travelers (The Travelers) Predictability Rank

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What is The Travelers Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Travelers Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Travelers (The Travelers) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » The Travelers Companies Inc (NYSE:TRV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PA9:Germany PA9:Germany TRV:Chile TRVC34:Brazil TRV:Austria TRV:Argentina

Address

485 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10017

Website

https://www.travelers.com

Travelers offers a broad product range and participates in both commercial and personal insurance lines. Its commercial operations offer a variety of coverage types for companies of any size but concentrate on serving midsize businesses. Its personal lines are roughly evenly split between auto and homeowners insurance. Travelers derives 6% of its premiums from foreign markets.

Executives

Maria Olivo	officer: Executive Vice President	THE TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC., 485 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
William H Heyman	officer: Vice Chairman & CIO	THE TRAVELERS COMPANIES INC, 385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST PAUL MN 55102
Andy F Bessette	officer: EVP and Chief Admin Officer	THE TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC., 385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Michael Frederick Klein	officer: EVP & President, Personal Ins.	385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Paul E. Munson	officer: SVP & Corp. Controller	385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Russell G. Golden	director	385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
David Donnay Rowland	officer: EVP & Co-Chief Invest. Officer	385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Avrohom J. Kess	officer: Vice Chmn & Chief Legal Off	385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Daniel S. Frey	officer: Chief Financial Officer	385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Jeffrey P. Klenk	officer: EVP & Pres., Bond & Spec. Ins.	385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Gregory C Toczydlowski	officer: EVP & President, Business Ins.	385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Diane Kurtzman	officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer	385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Alan D Schnitzer	officer: Vice Chairman	385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Daniel Tei-hwa Yin	officer: EVP & Co-Chief Invest. Officer	385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Douglas K Russel	officer: Controller	THE TRAVELERS COMPANIES INC, ONE TOWER SQ, HARTFORD CT 06183