Texas Pacific Land (Texas Pacific Land) Predictability Rank

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What is Texas Pacific Land Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Texas Pacific Land Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Texas Pacific Land (Texas Pacific Land) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Texas Pacific Land Corp (NYSE:TPL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

9WY:Germany 9WY:Germany

Address

1700 Pacific Avenue, Suite 2900, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201

Website

https://www.texaspacific.com

Texas Pacific Land Corp is mainly engaged in sales and leases of land owned, retaining oil and gas royalties, and the overall management of the land owned. It operates its business in two segments including Land and Resource Management and Water Service and Operations. The Land and Resource Management segment focuses on managing its oil and gas royalty interest and surface acres located in 19 different counties. The Water Service and Operations segment includes Water Sourcing, Produced Water Gathering / Treatment / Recycling, Infrastructure Development, Produced Water Disposal, Water Tracking / Analytics / Well Testing.

Executives

Murray Stahl	director	C/O HORIZON KINETICS LLC, 470 PARK AVE S 8TH FL S, NEW YORK NY 10016
Horizon Kinetics Asset Management Llc	10 percent owner	470 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 4TH FLOOR SOUTH, NEW YORK NY 10016
Rhys J Best	director	MRC GLOBAL INC., 2 HOUSTON CENTER, 909 FANNIN, SUITE 3100, HOUSTON TX 77010
Donald G Cook	director	100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902
Micheal W. Dobbs	officer: Senior VP, Secretory + GC	1700 PACIFIC AVENUE, SUITE 2900, DALLAS TX 75201
Karl F Kurz	director	DEVON ENERGY CORP., 333 W. SHERIDAN AVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Stephanie Buffington	officer: Chief Accounting Officer
Dana F. Mcginnis	director	112 E PECAN STREET, SUITE 1425, SAN ANTONIO TX 78025
Barbara J Duganier	director	6 CARLTON PARK COURT, HOUSTON TX 77024-7316
Norris John R Iii	director	3811 TURTLE CREEK BLVD #400, C/O CALOWAY NORRIS & BURDETTE, DALLAS TX 75219
Donna E Epps	director	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Eric L Oliver	director	303 W WALL, SUITE 1700, MIDLAND TX 79701
Chris Steddum	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1700 PACIFIC AVENUE, SUITE 2900, DALLAS TX 75201
Tyler Glover	director, officer: President & CEO	1700 PACIFIC AVENUE, SUITE 2770, C/O TEXAS PACIFIC LAND TRUST, DALLAS TX 75201
David E. Barry	director	C/O SIDRA REAL ESTATE, INC., TWO RIVERWAY, SUITE 1010, HOUSTON TX 77056