Target Hospitality (Target Hospitality) Predictability Rank

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What is Target Hospitality Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Target Hospitality Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Target Hospitality Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Target Hospitality (Target Hospitality) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Target Hospitality Corp (NAS:TH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9320 Lakeside Boulevard, Suite 300, The Woodlands, Houston, TX, USA, 77381

Website

https://www.targethospitality.com

Target Hospitality Corp is a vertically integrated specialty rental and hospitality services company in the United States. The company provides vertically integrated specialty rental and comprehensive hospitality services including catering food services, maintenance, housekeeping, grounds-keeping, on-site security, overall workforce lodge management, and laundry service. Its operating segment includes HFS-South and HFS-Midwest; Government; TCPL Keystone and others. It generates a majority of its revenue from the Government segment which consists primarily of specialty rental and vertically integrated hospitality services revenue from customers with Government contracts located in Texas.

Executives

Eric Kalamaras	officer: EVP and CFO	ATLAS PIPELINE PARTNERS, GP, 110 W. 7TH, SUITE 2300, TULSA OK 74119
Troy C. Schenk	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O TARGET HOSPITALITY, 2170 BUCKTHORNE PLACE, SUITE 440, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Jason Paul Vlacich	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O TARGET HOSPITALITY, 2170 BUCKTHORNE PLACE, SUITE 440, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Alejandro Hernandez	director	12500 BALTIMORE AVENUE, BELTSVILLE MD 20750
James B. Archer	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O TARGET HOSPITALITY, 2170 BUCKTHORNE PLACE, SUITE 440, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Jeffrey Sagansky	director	1450 2ND STREET, SUITE 247, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Pamela H. Patenaude	director	26642 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, C/O LOANDEPOT, INC., FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610
Tdr Capital Ii Investments Lp	10 percent owner	20 BENTINCK STREET, LONDON X0 W1U 2EU
Manjit Dale	10 percent owner	C/O TDR CAPITAL LLP, 20 BENTINCK STREET, LONDON X0 W1U 2EU
Capital Llp Tdr	10 percent owner	20 BENTINCK STREET, LONDON X0 W1U 2EU
Stephen Robertson	director, 10 percent owner	20 BENTINCK STREET, LONDON X0 W1U 2EU
Arrow Holdings S.a.r.l.	10 percent owner	20 RUE EUGENE RUPPERT, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2453
Modulaire Holding S.a.r.l.	10 percent owner	20 RUE EUGENE RUPPERT, LUXEMBOURG CITY N4 L-2453
Mfa Global S.a.r.l.	10 percent owner	20 RUE EUGENE RUPPERT, LUXEMBOURG CITY N4 L-2453
Mfa Limited Partnership Slp	10 percent owner	20 RUE EUGENE RUPPERT, LUXEMBOURG CITY N4 L-2453