TELA Bio (TELA Bio) Predictability Rank

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What is TELA Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TELA Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

TELA Bio Predictability Rank Related Terms

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TELA Bio (TELA Bio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » TELA Bio Inc (NAS:TELA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1 Great Valley Parkway, Suite 24, Malvern, PA, USA, 19355

Website

https://www.telabio.com

TELA Bio Inc is a United States-based medical technology company. The company is involved in developing and marketing of tissue reinforcement materials to address unmet needs in soft tissue reconstruction. Its reinforced tissue matrices called OviTex improve the clinical outcomes and reduce costs of care in hernia repair, abdominal wall reconstruction and plastic and reconstructive surgery.

Executives

Gregory A. Firestone	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O TELA BIO, INC., 1 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 24, MALVERN PA 19355
Roberto Cuca	officer: COO and CFO	C/O TREVENA, INC., 1018 WEST 8TH AVENUE, SUITE A, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Antony Koblish	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O TELA BIO, INC., 1 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 24, MALVERN PA 19355
Orbimed Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Orbimed Capital Gp Iv Llc	10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Opaleye Management Inc.	10 percent owner	ONE BOSTON PLACE, SUITE 2600, BOSTON MA 02108
Ew Healthcare Partners Fund 2-a, L.p.	other: See footnotes 1 and 2	280 PARK AVENUE, 27TH FLOOR EAST, NEW YORK NY 10017
Quaker Bioventures Ii Lp	10 percent owner	QUAKER BIOVENTURES, 2929 ARCH STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Quaker Bioventures Capital Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	CIRA CENTER, 2929 ARCH STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Lisa N Colleran	director	0NE MILLENIUM WAY, BRANCHBURG NJ 08876
John Nosenzo	director	C/O BIOVENTUS INC., 4721 EMPEROR BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, DURHAM NC 27703
Federica F. O'brien	director	C/O TELA BIO, INC., 1 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 24, MALVERN PA 19355
Kurt Azarbarzin	director	C/O TELA BIO, INC., 1 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 24, MALVERN PA 19355
Vincent J Burgess	director	2210 FARADAY AVE #100, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Douglas G Evans	director	1 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 24, MALVERN PA 19355