Atlassian (Atlassian) Predictability Rank

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What is Atlassian Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Atlassian Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Atlassian Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Atlassian (Atlassian) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Atlassian Corp (NAS:TEAM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

48D:Germany 48D:Germany T1AM34:Brazil

Address

341 George Street, Level 6, Sydney, NSW, AUS, 2000

Website

https://www.atlassian.com

Atlassian produces software that helps teams work together more efficiently and effectively. The company provides project planning and management software, collaboration tools, and IT help desk solutions. The company operates in four segments: subscriptions (term licenses and cloud agreements), maintenance (annual maintenance contracts that provide support and periodic updates and are generally attached to perpetual license sales), perpetual license (upfront sale for indefinite usage of the software), and other (training, strategic consulting, and revenue from the Atlassian Marketplace app store). Atlassian was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Sydney.

Executives

Michael Cannon-brookes	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-CEO, Co-Founder	ATLASSIAN, 350 BUSH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Scott Farquhar	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-CEO, Co-Founder	ATLASSIAN, 350 BUSH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Anutthara Bharadwaj	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ATLASSIAN, 350 BUSH STREET FLOOR 13, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Gene Liu	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O ATLASSIAN, 350 BUSH STREET FLOOR 13, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Heather Mirjahangir Fernandez	director	C/O ATLASSIAN, 350 BUSH STREET FLOOR 13, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Rajeev Bashyam Rajan	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O ATLASSIAN, 350 BUSH STREET FLOOR 13, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Cameron Deatsch	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O ATLASSIAN, 350 BUSH STREET FLOOR 13, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94101
Joseph Leo Binz	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ATLASSIAN, 350 BUSH STREET FLOOR 13, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Enrique T Salem	director	SYMANTEC CORPORATION, 20330 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., CUPERTINO CA 95014
Sasan K Goodarzi	director	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Shona L Brown	director	1600 AMIPHITHEATRE PARKWAY, BUILDING 41, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Rich Wong	director	428 UNIVERSITY AVE, PALO ALTO CA 94555
Michelle Zatlyn	director	C/O CLOUDFLARE, INC., 101 TOWNSEND STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Steven J Sordello	director	C/O LINKEDIN CORPORATION, 2029 STIERLIN COURT, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Jay Parikh	director	317 UNIVERSITY AVE, SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94301