What is Smith & Wesson Brands Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Smith & Wesson Brands Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Smith & Wesson Brands (Smith & Wesson Brands) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2100 Roosevelt Avenue, Springfield, MA, USA, 01104
Smith & Wesson Brands Inc is a U.S.-based leader in firearm manufacturing. It operates under one reportable segment: Firearms, which includes firearms distribution and manufacturing services. The company manufactures handguns, long guns, sporting rifles, shooting gear, and suppressor products. The firm's brand portfolio consists of Smith and Wesson, M&P, Thompson/Center Arms, Performance Center, and Gemtech; which are used for defense, law enforcement, hunting, and sporting purposes. The company operates internationally, with the majority of income generated by the U.S. market from its handgun products.
Executives
| Robert L Scott |
director |
14500 N. NORTHSIGHT, SUITE 116, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260 |
| Michelle Lohmeier |
director |
C/O SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDINGS, INC., WICHITA KS 67210 |
| John B Furman |
director |
1420 COLUMBUS AVENUE, PORTSMOUTH VA 23704 |
| Deana L Mcpherson |
officer: See Remarks |
2100 ROOSEVELT AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104 |
| Fred M Diaz |
director |
9614 AMALFI CT, BRENTWOOD TN 37027 |
| Mark Peter Smith |
officer: See remarks. |
2100 ROOSEVELT AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104 |
| Kevin Alden Maxwell |
officer: See Remarks |
2100 ROOSEVELT AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104 |
| Barry M Monheit |
director |
|
| Robert J. Cicero |
officer: See Remarks |
2100 ROOSEVELT AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104 |
| Denis Suggs |
director |
7701 FORSYTH BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, ST. LOUIS MO 63105 |
| Michael F Golden |
officer: President and CEO |
2100 ROOSEVELT AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104 |
| Anita D Britt |
director |
3000 NW 107TH AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33172 |
| Susan Jean Cupero |
officer: See Remarks |
2100 ROOSEVELT AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104 |
| Lane A. Tobiassen |
officer: President, Firearm Division |
2100 ROOSEVELT AVENUE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104 |
| Mitchell A Saltz |
director |
14500 NORTH NORTHSIGHT BLVD SUITE 116, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260 |
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