Star Equity Holdings (Star Equity Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Star Equity Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Star Equity Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Star Equity Holdings (Star Equity Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Star Equity Holdings Inc (NAS:STRR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

STRRP.PFD:USA

Address

53 Forest Avenue, Suite 101, Old Greenwich, CT, USA, 06870

Website

https://www.starequity.com

Star Equity Holdings Inc is a multi-industry diversified holding company with three segments; Healthcare segment provides products and services in the area of nuclear medicine imaging with a focus on cardiac health. It provides imaging services to healthcare providers using a fleet of solid-state gamma cameras and also the manufacturing, distribution, and maintenance of gamma cameras, The construction segment manufactures modular housing units for commercial and residential applications. It operates in two businesses: modular building manufacturing and structural wall panel and wood foundation manufacturing, including building supply retail operations, and The investments segment generates intercompany revenue from the lease of commercial properties and equipment.

Executives

Thatcher Butcher	officer: President - KBS	C/O STAR EQUITY HOLDINGS, INC., 53 FOREST AVENUE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Coleman Richard Kenneth Jr.	officer: Chief Operating Officer	53 FOREST AVE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Ronald A. Schumacher	officer: Exec Chairman - EdgeBuilder	C/O STAR EQUITY HOLDINGS, INC., 53 FOREST AVENUE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Jeffrey E. Eberwein	director	53 FOREST AVENUE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Mitchell I Quain	director	53 FOREST AVENUE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
John W Gildea	director	53 FOREST AVENUE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Hannah M. Bible	officer: Chief Legal Officer	53 FOREST AVENUE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Michael A. Cunnion	director	53 FOREST AVENUE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
David James Noble	officer: Chief Operating Officer	53 FOREST AVENUE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Matthew G. Molchan	officer: President and CEO	1048 INDUSTRIAL COURT, SUWANEE GA 30024
Cannell Capital Llc	10 percent owner	245 MERIWETHER CIRCLE, ALTA WY 83414
John M Climaco	director	PO BOX 326, PARK CITY UT 84060
Virgil Lott	officer: President, Diagnostic Imaging	1048 INDUSTRIAL COURT, SUWANEE GA 30024
Michael Debeauvernet	officer: General Manager,Mobile Imaging	C/O DIGIRAD CORPORATION, 1048 INDUSTRIAL COURT, SUWANEE GA 30024
Jeffry R. Keyes	officer: Chief Financial Officer	13950 STOWE DRIVE, POWAY CA 92064-8803