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Neuronetics (Neuronetics) Predictability Rank


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What is Neuronetics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Neuronetics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Neuronetics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Neuronetics (Neuronetics) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3222 Phoenixville Pike, Malvern, PA, USA, 19355
Neuronetics Inc a commercial stage medical technology company focused on designing, developing and marketing products that improve the quality of life for patients who suffer from psychiatric disorders. Its first commercial product, the NeuroStar Advanced Therapy System, is a non-invasive and non-systemic office-based treatment that uses transcranial magnetic stimulation, or TMS, to create a pulsed, MRI-strength magnetic field that induces electrical currents designed to stimulate specific areas of the brain associated with mood. The company designed the NeuroStar Advanced Therapy as a non-invasive therapeutic alternative to treat patients who suffer from MDD and to address many of the key limitations of existing treatment options.
Executives
Keith J Sullivan director, officer: President and CEO C/O RELIANT TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 464 ELLIS STREET, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
William Andrew Macan officer: Sr. VP, GC, CCO and Secretary 24275 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 600, KATY TX 77494
Stephen Furlong officer: CFO C/O NEURONETICS, INC., 3222 PHOENIXVILLE PIKE, MALVERN PA 19355
Robert Cascella director C/O HOLOGIC, INC., BEDFORD MA 01730
John K Bakewell director C/O LANTHEUS MEDICAL IMAGING, INC., 331 TREBLE COVE ROAD, NO. BILLERICA MA 01862
Cannell Capital Llc 10 percent owner 245 MERIWETHER CIRCLE, ALTA WY 83414
Joseph H Capper director BIOTELEMETRY, INC., 1000 CEDAR HOLLOW ROAD, #102, MALVERN PA 19355
Bruce Joseph Shook director 162 CRICKET AVE, ARDMORE PA 19003
Megan Rosengarten director C/O NEURONETICS, INC., 3222 PHOENIXVILLE PIKE, MALVERN PA 19355
Sheryl L Conley director C/O NEURONETICS, INC., 3222 PHOENIXVILLE PIKE, MALVERN PA 19355
Wilfred E Jaeger director C/O THREE ARCH PARTNERS, 3200 ALPINE RD, PORTOLA VALLEY CA 94028
Glenn P Muir director C/O HOLOGIC, INC., BEDFORD MA 01730
Gregory Harper officer: VP of Prod. Dev. & Operations C/O NEURONETICS, INC, 3222 PHOENIXVILLE PIKE, MALVERN PA 19355
Brian E Farley director 2200 ZANKER ROAD, SUITE F, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Daniel Guthrie officer: Chief Commercial Officer C/O NEURONETICS, INC, 322 PHOENIXVILLE PIKE, MALVERN PA 19355