Seritage Growth Properties (Seritage Growth Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is Seritage Growth Properties Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Seritage Growth Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Seritage Growth Properties (Seritage Growth Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Seritage Growth Properties (NYSE:SRG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SRGpA.PFD:USA

Address

500 Fifth Avenue, Suite 1530, New York, NY, USA, 10110

Website

https://www.seritage.com

Seritage Growth Properties is engaged in the real property business through its investment in its operating partnership, Seritage Growth Properties, L.P. Seritage is principally engaged in the acquisition, ownership, development, redevelopment, management and leasing of diversified retail real estate throughout the United States. The company's primary objective is to create value for its shareholders through the re-leasing and redevelopment of the majority of its Wholly Owned Properties and JV Properties. It generates a majority of its revenue from tenants.

Executives

Edward S Lampert	other: Trustee	1170 KANE CONCOURSE, SUITE 200, BAY HARBOUR FL 33154
Mark Wilsmann	director	SERITAGE GROWTH PROPERTIES, 500 FIFTH AVENUE, STE. 1530, NEW YORK NY 10110
Mitchell A Sabshon	director	2901 BUTTERFIELD ROAD, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Talya Nevo-hacohen	director	C/O SABRA HEALTH CARE REIT, INC., 18500 VON KARMAN, SUITE 550, IRVINE CA 92612
Adam S Metz	director	110 NORTH WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Eric Dinenberg	officer: Chief Operating Officer	SERITAGE GROWTH PROPERTIES, 500 FIFTH AVENUE, STE. 1530, NEW YORK NY 10110
Allison Thrush	director	500 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 1530, NEW YORK NY 10110
Andrea Olshan	director, officer: CEO and President	500 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 1530, NEW YORK NY 10110
Andrew Galvin	officer: EVP of Investments	SERITAGE GROWTH PROPERTIES, 500 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 1530, NEW YORK NY 10110
Amanda Lombard	officer: CFO and EVP	500 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 1530, NEW YORK NY 10110
Brian Robert Dickman	officer: CFO and EVP	411 S. OLD WOODWARD, APT. 918, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009
Kenneth T Lombard	officer: EVP, Chief Operating Officer	550 SOUTH HOPE STREET, SUITE 2850, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Benjamin Schall	director, officer: CEO, President	261 BROADWAY, NO.11B, NEW YORK NY 10007
Matthew E Fernand	officer: General Counsel and EVP	3333 BEVERLY ROAD, C/O SERITAGE GROWTH PROPERTIES, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
James Edwin Bry	officer: See Remarks	3333 BEVERLY ROAD, C/O SERITAGE GROWTH PROPERTIES, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179