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Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure (Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure) Predictability Rank


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What is Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure (Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Inc (NYSE:SOI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
RNGR FET CCLP NGS BOOM KLXE GEOS NINE DTI FTK SLB HAL BKR MIL:TEN FTI SHSE:601808 NOV WFRD CHX ASX:WOR
Traded in Other Exchanges
68S:Germany
Address
9811 Katy Freeway, Suite 700, Houston, TX, USA, 77024
Website
https://www.solarisoilfield.com
Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Inc provides oilfield products, services and infrastructure to enhance drilling, completions, efficiency and safety in North American shale plays. The company manufactures and provides its patented mobile proppant management systems that unload, store and deliver proppant at oil and natural gas well sites. Its systems reduce the customers' cost and time to complete wells by improving the efficiency of proppant logistics, in addition to enhancing well site safety. Its customers include oil and natural gas exploration and production companies as well as oilfield service companies. The company generates revenue primarily through the rental of its systems and related services, including transportation of systems and field supervision and support.
Executives
Thrc Holdings, Lp 10 percent owner 17018 INTERSTATE 20, CISCO TX 76437
James R Burke director
Cynthia M. Durrett officer: Chief Administrative Officer 9811 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 900, HOUSTON TX 77024
Christopher P. Wirtz officer: CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER 9811 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77024
William A Zartler director 600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 2310, HOUSTON TX 77002
Lindsay R. Bourg officer: Chief Accounting Officer 1415 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Kelly L. Price officer: Chief Operating Officer 9811 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 900, HOUSTON TX 77024
Kyle S. Ramachandran officer: Chief Financial Officer 9811 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 900, HOUSTON TX 77024
Christopher M Powell officer: General Counsel 9811 KATY FREEWAY, STE. 700, HOUSTON TX 77024
Laurie H Argo director 1100 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Thrc Management, Llc 10 percent owner 17018 INTERSTATE 20, CISCO TX 76437
Dan H. Wilks 10 percent owner 17018 INTERSTATE 20, CISCO TX 76437
Staci Wilks 10 percent owner 17018 INTERSTATE 20, CISCO TX 76437
Keenan W Howard Jr director 410 PARK AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Solaris Energy Capital, Llc 10 percent owner 9811 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 900, HOUSTON TX 77024