Shake Shack (Shake Shack) Predictability Rank

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What is Shake Shack Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shake Shack Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Shake Shack (Shake Shack) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Shake Shack Inc (NYSE:SHAK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SHAK:Mexico 9SH:Germany 9SH:Germany

Address

225 Varick Street, Suite 301, New York, NY, USA, 10014

Website

https://www.shakeshack.com

Shake Shack Inc is a roadside burger stands. It is serving a classic American menu of premium burgers, hot dogs, crispy chicken, frozen custard, crinkle-cut fries, shakes, beer, wine and more. The company's burgers are made with a whole-muscle blend of all-natural, hormone and antibiotic-free Angus beef, ground fresh daily, cooked to order and served on a non-genetically modified organism (GMO) potato bun. Its menu focuses on food and beverages, crafted from a range of classic American foods. The company serves draft Root Beer, seasonal freshly-squeezed lemonade, organic fresh brewed iced tea, cold brew coffee, organic apple juice, and Shack20 bottled water.

Executives

Jeffrey Flug	director	C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Chapman Charles J Iii	director	1502 HUNTER DRIVE, WAYZATA MN 55391
Zach Koff	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O SHAKE SHACK INC., 24 UNION SQUARE EAST, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Jeffrey D Lawrence	director	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Lori George Billingsley	director	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Daniel Harris Meyer	director	24 UNION SQUARE EAST, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Jenna Lyons	director	C/O J.CREW GROUP, INC., 770 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10003
Katherine Irene Fogertey	officer: Chief Financial Officer	225 VARICK STREET, SUITE 301, NEW YORK NY 10014
Randall J Garutti	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SHAKE SHACK INC., 24 UNION SQUARE EAST, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Tara Comonte	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O SHAKE SHACK INC., 24 UNION SQUARE EAST,5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Tristan Walker	director	330 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
Robert T Vivian	director	C/O SHAKE SHACK INC., 24 UNION SQUARE EAST, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Sumaiya Balbale	director	697 CALMAR AVENUE, OAKLAND CA 94610
Select Equity Group, L.p.	director, other: See Remarks	380 LAFAYETTE STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Green Equity Investors Vi, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025