What is Societal CDMO Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Societal CDMO Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Societal CDMO (Societal CDMO) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1 E. Uwchlan Avenue, Suite 112, Exton, PA, USA, 19341
Societal CDMO Inc is a bi-coastal contract development and manufacturing organization. It offers capabilities spanning pre-Investigational New Drug development to commercial manufacturing and packaging for a wide range of therapeutic dosage forms primarily focused on small molecules. The company also provides therapeutic development, end-to-end regulatory support, clinical and commercial manufacturing, aseptic fill/finish, lyophilization, packaging, and logistics services to the global pharmaceutical market.
Executives
| Bryan M. Reasons |
director |
C/O IMPAX LABORATORIES, INC., 30831 HUNTWOOD AVENUE, HAYWARD CA 94544 |
| Elena Cant |
director |
C/O SOCIETAL CDMO, INC., 1 E. UWCHLAN AVENUE, SUITE 112, EXTON PA 19341 |
| Enloe J David Jr |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
|
| James Charles Miller |
director |
490 LAPP ROAD, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Wayne Weisman |
director |
490 LAPP ROAD, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| William Ashton |
director |
C/O HARRISON CONSULTING GROUP, PO BOX 283, NEWTOWN SQUARE PA 19073 |
| Winston J Churchill |
director |
C/O SCP PARTNERS, SUITE 300, 1200 LIBERTY RIDGE DRIVE, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Awm Investment Company, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
527 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Mathew Paul Arens |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O FIRST LIGHT ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, 3300 EDINBOROUGH WAY, SUITE 201, EDINA MN 55435 |
| First Light Asset Management, Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
3300 EDINBOROUGH WAY, SUITE 201, EDINA MN 55435 |
| Laura L. Parks |
director |
C/O RECRO PHARMA, INC., 490 LAPP ROAD, MALVERN PA 29355 |
| Michael Berelowitz |
director |
415 EAST 37TH STREET, APT 36C, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Ryan David Lake |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
KENSEY NASH CORPORATION, 735 PENNSYLVANIA DRIVE, EXTON PA 19341 |
| Scp Vitalife Partners (israel) Ii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
SUITE 190, 7 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Scp Vitalife Partners Ii Lp |
10 percent owner |
SUITE 190, 7 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, MALVERN PA 19355 |
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