Steelcase (Steelcase) Predictability Rank

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What is Steelcase Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Steelcase Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Steelcase Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Steelcase (Steelcase) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Steelcase Inc (NYSE:SCS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GJB:Germany GJB:Germany

Address

901 44th Street SE, Grand Rapids, MI, USA, 49508

Website

https://www.steelcase.com

Steelcase Inc is a furniture company primarily based in the United States and has operations in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Steelcase markets its products primarily through a network of independent and company-owned dealers. The company operates through the Americas segment, the EMEA segment and the Other category. The Americas segment offers architecture, furniture and technology products is marketed to corporate, government, healthcare, education and retail customers, EMEA segment provides furniture systems, storage and seating solutions. Majority of revenue is generated from Americas segment.

Executives

Nicole Cherie Mcgrath	officer: VP, Corp Controller and CAO	901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508
Robert G Krestakos	officer: VP, Global Operations	901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508
David C Sylvester	officer: Senior Vice President, CFO	901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508
Lizbeth S O'shaughnessy	officer: Senior VP, CLO and Secretary	901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508
Wege Peter M Ii	director	901 44TH ST SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508
Sanjay Gupta	director	2775 SANDERS ROAD, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Sara E Armbruster	officer: VP, WS Futures & Corp Strategy	901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508
Jennifer C Niemann	director	901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508
Steven Douglas Miller	officer: VP, Chief Technology Officer	901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508
Guillaume M Alvarez	officer: Senior VP, EMEA	901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508
Kate P Wolters	director	901 44TH ST, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508
Robin L Zondervan	officer: Corporate Controller and CAO	901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508
Eddy F Schmitt	officer: Senior VP, Americas	901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508
Linda K Williams	director	901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508
Donna K Flynn	officer: VP, Global Talent Management	901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508