Royalty Pharma (Royalty Pharma) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2020. Start your Free Trial

What is Royalty Pharma Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Royalty Pharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Royalty Pharma Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Royalty Pharma's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Royalty Pharma (Royalty Pharma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Royalty Pharma PLC (NAS:RPRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RPRX:Mexico RPD:Germany RPD:Germany

Address

110 East 59th Street, FL 33, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.royaltypharma.com

Royalty Pharma PLC is the largest buyer of biopharmaceutical royalties. The firm has a portfolio of royalties that entitles it to payments based on the sales of biopharma products. Royalty Pharma receives royalties on more than 35 commercial products, including AbbVie and Johnson & Johnson's Imbruvica (for chronic lymphocytic leukemia and other blood cancers), Biogen's Tysabri (for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis), Vertex's cystic fibrosis franchise, and 10 development-stage product candidates.

Executives

Rory B Riggs	director	65 RAILROAD AVE, RIDGEFIELD NJ 07657
Avara Management Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O GISEV FAMILY OFFICE SA, CONTRADA DI SASSELLO 2, LUGANO V8 6900
Terrance P. Coyne	officer: EVP & CFO	C/O ROYALTY PHARMA PLC, 110 EAST 59TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Pablo G. Legorreta	director, officer: CEO, Chairman of the Board	110 E 59TH STREET, SUITE 3300, NEW YORK NY 10022
George W. Lloyd	officer: EVP, Investments & GC	C/O ROYALTY PHARMA PLC, 110 EAST 59TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Marshall Urist	officer: EVP, Research & Investments	C/O ROYALTY PHARMA PLC, 110 EAST 59TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Mario Germano Giuliani	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GISEV FAMILY OFFICE SA, CONTRADA DI SASSELLO 2, LUGANO V8 6900
James F. Reddoch	officer: EVP, Research & Investments	C/O ROYALTY PHARMA PLC, 110 EAST 59TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Nogra Group Sicaf Sif Gg Strategic	10 percent owner	C/O NOGRA GROUP SICAF-SIF S.A., 18 AVENUE DE LA PORTE NEUVE, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2227
Nogra Group Sicaf - Sif S.a.	10 percent owner	18 AVENUE DE LA PORTE NEUVE, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2227
Catherine M. Engelbert	director	110 NORTH CARPENTER STREET, CHICAGO IL 60607
Errol B Desouza	director	215 COLLEGE ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Henry A Fernandez	director	MSCI INC., 88 PINE STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
Gregory Norden	director	16640 CHESTERFIELD GROVE DRIVE, SUITE 200, CHESTERFIELD MO 63005
Ted W Love	director	C/O GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS, INC., 400 EAST JAMIE COURT, SUITE 101, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080