Ralph Lauren (Ralph Lauren) Predictability Rank

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What is Ralph Lauren Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ralph Lauren Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ralph Lauren (Ralph Lauren) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Ralph Lauren Corp (NYSE:RL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RL:Mexico PRL:Germany PRL:Germany

Address

650 Madison Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.ralphlauren.com

Founded by designer Ralph Lauren in 1967 in New York City, Ralph Lauren Corp. designs, markets, and distributes lifestyle products in North America, Europe, and Asia. Its products include apparel, footwear, eyewear, jewelry, handbags, home goods, and fragrances. The company's brands include Ralph Lauren Collection, Polo Ralph Lauren, and Lauren Ralph Lauren. Distribution channels for Ralph Lauren include wholesale (department stores and specialty stores), retail (company-owned retail stores and e-commerce), and licensing.

Executives

Halide Alagoz	officer: Chief Product Officer	RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION, 650 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Patrice Louvet	director, officer: President and CEO	ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Wei Zhang	director	RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION, 650 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Debra S. Cupp	director	RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION, 650 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Andrew Howard Smith	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION, 650 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Hubert Joly	director	C/O BEST BUY CO, INC., 7601 PENN AVENUE SOUTH, RICHFIELD MN 55423
Jane Nielsen	officer: Corp. Sr. Vice President, CFO	516 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
Michael A George	director
Valerie B Jarrett	director	USG CORPORATION, 125 SOUTH FRANKLIN STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
Darren Walker	director	PEPSICO, INC., 700 ANDERSON HILL ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Lauren Family, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	1065 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
David R. Lauren	director, officer: Vice Chair, Chief Innovation	RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION, 650 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Joyce F Brown	director	C/O RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION, 650 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Valerie Hermann	officer: Pres., RL Luxury Collections	RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION, 650 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ricky Lauren	10 percent owner	C/O TIEDEMANN ADVISORS, 520 MADISON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022