Rivian Automotive (Rivian Automotive) Predictability Rank

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What is Rivian Automotive Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rivian Automotive Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Rivian Automotive (Rivian Automotive) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Rivian Automotive Inc (NAS:RIVN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RIVN:Mexico 99U:Germany

Address

14600 Myford Road, Irvine, CA, USA, 92606

Website

https://www.rivian.com

Rivian Automotive Inc designs, develops and manufactures category-defining electric vehicles and accessories. In the consumer market, the company launched the R1 platform with the first generation of consumer vehicles: the R1T, a two-row, five-passenger pickup truck, and the R1S, a three-row, seven-passenger sport utility vehicle (SUV).

Executives

Claire Mcdonough	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE, INC., 14600 MYFORD ROAD, IRVINE CA 92618
Kjell Gruner	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC., 3700 W JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
John Krafcik	director	C/O RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE, INC., 14600 MYFORD ROAD, IRVINE CA 92618
Jeff Baker	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612
Harald Kroeger	director	C/O RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE, INC., 14600 MYFORD ROAD, IRVINE CA 92606
Jay T Flatley	director	9885 TOWNE CENTRE DR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Jiten Behl	officer: Chief Growth Officer	C/O RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE, INC., 14600 MYFORD ROAD, IRVINE CA 92618
Robert J Scaringe	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE, INC., 14600 MYFORD ROAD, IRVINE CA 92618
Ford Motor Co	10 percent owner	ONE AMERICAN RD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Pamela Thomas-graham	director	C/O IDENIX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 60 HAMPSHIRE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Karen Boone	director	15 KOCH ROAD, SUITE J, CORTE MADERA CA 94925
Rose M Marcario	director	21101 OXNARD STREET, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
Peter Krawiec	director	C/O RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE, INC., 14600 MYFORD ROAD, IRVINE CA 92618
Sanford Harold Schwartz	director	C/O RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE, INC., 14600 MYFORD ROAD, IRVINE CA 92618
Amazon Com Inc	director, 10 percent owner	410 TERRY AVENUE NORTH, SEATTLE WA 98109