Reynolds Consumer Products (Reynolds Consumer Products) Predictability Rank

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What is Reynolds Consumer Products Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Reynolds Consumer Products Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Reynolds Consumer Products (Reynolds Consumer Products) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » Reynolds Consumer Products Inc (NAS:REYN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1900 W. Field Court, Lake Forest, IL, USA, 60045

Website

https://www.reynoldsconsumerproducts.com

Reynolds Consumer Products Inc is a provider of household products. The firm is engaged in the production and sales of cooking products, waste and storage products, and tableware. It operates through four reportable segments namely, Reynolds Cooking and Baking, Hefty Waste and Storage, Hefty Tableware, and Presto Products. Reynolds Cooking and Baking segment produce branded and store brand aluminum foil, disposable aluminum pans, parchment paper, freezer paper, wax paper, butcher paper, plastic wrap, baking cups, oven bags and slow cooker liners.

Executives

Christine Montenegro Mcgrath	director	C/O REYNOLDS CONSUMER PRODUCTS INC., 1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Chris Mayrhofer	officer: Vice President and Controller	C/O REYNOLDS CONSUMER PRODUCTS, 1900 W. FIELD CT., LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Christopher Corey	officer: President, Presto Products	C/O REYNOLDS CONSUMER PRODUCTS, INC., 1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Mark D. Swartzberg	officer: VP Investor Relations	C/O REYNOLDS CONSUMER PRODUCTS INC., 1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Nathan D. Lowe	officer: VP, Fin. Planning & Analysis	C/O REYNOLDS CONSUMER PRODUCTS INC., 1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
V Lance Mitchell	director, officer: President and CEO	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Michael E. Graham	officer: Chief Financial Officer	REYNOLDS CONSUMER PRODUCT, 1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Stephen C. Estes	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Clyde David Watson	officer: Chief Legal Counsel/Corp Sec	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Valerie Elizabeth Miller	officer: EVP-HR	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Michael F. Mcmahon	officer: VP-Senior Sales Team	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Rita Fisher	officer: Chief Information Officer/EVP	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Allen Hugli	director	C/O RANK GROUP, LEVEL II, 148 QUAY ST, AUCKLAND Q2 00000
Lisa M Smith	officer: President, Hefty Waste&Storage	1900 W. FIELD COURT, C/O REYNOLDS CONSUMER PRODUCTS INC., LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Gregory Alan Cole	director	PO BOX 3515, AUCKLAND Q2 00000