What is Quest Resource Holding Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Quest Resource Holding Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Quest Resource Holding (Quest Resource Holding) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3481 Plano Parkway, Suite 100, The Colony, TX, USA, 75056
Quest Resource Holding Corp is a national provider of waste and recycling services to customers from across multiple industry sectors that are typically larger, multi-location businesses. The company creates customer-specific programs and perform the related services for the collection, processing, recycling, disposal, and tracking of waste streams and recyclables. The company's services focus on the waste streams and recyclables from big box, grocers, and other specialty retailers; automotive after-market operations such as automotive maintenance, quick lube, dealerships, and collision repair; transportation, logistics, and fleet operators; manufacturing and industrial facilities; multi-family and commercial properties; restaurant chains and food operations.
Executives
| Audrey Dunning |
director |
242 MEADOWBROOK DRIVE, CRANBERRY TOWNSHIP PA 16066 |
| David P Sweitzer |
officer: EVP and COO |
3481 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056 |
| Brett Wade Johnston |
officer: Sr. VP of Finance and CFO |
C/O QUEST RESOURCE HOLDING CORPORATION, 3481 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056 |
| S. Ray Hatch |
director, officer: President and CEO |
3481 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056 |
| Wynnefield Partners Small Cap Value Lp I |
10 percent owner |
450 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123 |
| Miller Ronald L. Jr. |
director |
C/O INFINITY RESOURCES HOLDINGS CORP., 1375 NORTH SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 140, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85257 |
| Alan D. Allred |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O QUEST RESOURCE HOLDING CORPORATION, 3481 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056 |
| Laurie L Latham |
officer: Senior VP and CFO |
C/O VIEWCAST COM, 2665 VILLA CREEK DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75234 |
| Daniel M. Friedberg |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O SAGARD CAPITAL, 325 GREENWICH AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Barry M Kitt |
10 percent owner |
|
| Glenn Culpepper |
director |
6363 S FIDDLER'S GREEN CIRCLE, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111 |
| Stephen Coskery |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O QUEST RESOURCE HOLDING CORPORATION, 3481 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056 |
| Joshua Landes |
10 percent owner |
|
| Wynnefield Partners Small Cap Value Lp |
10 percent owner |
450 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123 |
| Nelson Obus |
10 percent owner |
|
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