Peloton Interactive (Peloton Interactive) Predictability Rank

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What is Peloton Interactive Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Peloton Interactive Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Peloton Interactive Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Peloton Interactive (Peloton Interactive) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Peloton Interactive Inc (NAS:PTON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PTON:Mexico 1PTON:Italy 0A46:UK 2ON:Germany 2ON:Germany 2ON:Germany PTON:Austria

Address

441 Ninth Avenue, Sixth Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10001

Website

https://www.onepeloton.com

Peloton Interactive Inc operates an interactive fitness platform. It operates its business in two reportable segments: Connected Fitness Products and Subscription. Connected Fitness Product revenue consists of sales of bike and tread and related accessories, associated fees for delivery and installation, and extended warranty agreements. Subscription revenue consists of revenue generated from monthly Connected Fitness Subscription and Digital Subscription. The company generates the majority of the revenue from the sale of Connected Fitness Products.

Executives

Elizabeth F Coddington	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC., 441 NINTH AVENUE, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Andrew S Rendich	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	100 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Jennifer Cunningham Cotter	officer: Chief Content Officer	C/O PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC., 441 NINTH AVENUE, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Leslie Berland	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC., 441 NINTH AVENUE, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Saqib Baig	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC., 441 NINTH AVENUE, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Nick V. Caldwell	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O HUBSPOT, INC., 25 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Thomas Cortese	officer: COO and Head of Prod. Dev.	C/O PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC., 441 NINTH AVENUE, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Allen J Klingsick	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC., 441 NINTH AVENUE, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Kevin Cornils	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC., 441 NINTH AVENUE, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Jill Woodworth	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC., 125 WEST 25TH STREET, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
William Lynch	director, officer: President	C/O HSN, INC., 1 HSN DRIVE, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33729
Mariana Garavaglia	officer: Chief Bus. Operations Officer	6600 CHASE OAKS BLVD, PLANO TX 75023
Barry Mccarthy	director, officer: CEO and President	100 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Angel L Mendez	director	C/O SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION, 1001 THIRD AVENUE SOUTH, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55404
Jonathan Mildenhall	director	C/O GRAUBARD MILLER, 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10174