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Alpineome Property Trust (Alpineome Property Trust) Predictability Rank


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What is Alpineome Property Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alpineome Property Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Alpineome Property Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Alpineome Property Trust (Alpineome Property Trust) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Alpine Income Property Trust Inc (NYSE:PINE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SRG SGIC PRET WHLR WSR CBL BFS RPT ALX NTST ASX:SCG SPG O ASX:VCX HKSE:00823 KIM REG SGX:C38U FRT XPAR:LI
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1140 N. New York Avenue, Suite 201, Winter Park, FL, USA, 32789
Website
https://www.alpinereit.com
Alpine Income Property Trust Inc is a real estate company. It owns and operates a portfolio of single-tenant commercial properties. The company's portfolio is comprised of single-tenant retail and office properties located in or in close proximity to MSAs, growth markets and other markets in the United States. The majority of the firm's revenue includes rental revenue derived from the ownership and leasing of property.
Executives
John P Albright director, officer: President and CEO PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Decker Mark Okey Jr director 10414 NEW ASCOT DRIVE, GREAT FALLS VA 22066
Consolidated Tomoka Land Co 10 percent owner 369 N. NEW YORK AVE., SUITE 201, WINTER PARK FL 32789
Daniel Earl Smith officer: See Remarks P.O. BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Wein Rachel Elias director PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Matthew Morris Partridge officer: Sr. VP & CFO 70 E. LONG LAKE, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304
Lisa Vorakoun officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer 1140 N. WILLIAMSON BLVD., SUITE 140, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32114
Steven Robert Greathouse officer: See Remarks PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Mark E Patten officer: See Remarks PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Andrew C Richardson director 527 MADISON AVENUE, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jeffrey Scott Yarckin director PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Morton Carson Good director PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120