What is PGT Innovations Predictability Rank?
5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
PGT Innovations Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
PGT Innovations (PGT Innovations) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1070 Technology Drive, North Venice, FL, USA, 34275
PGT Innovations Inc is a leading manufacturer of impact-resistant aluminum and vinyl-framed windows and doors and offers a broad range of fully customizable window and door products. The company distributes products through multiple channels, including window distributors, building supply distributors, window replacement dealers, and enclosure contractors. The products are sold through authorized dealers and distributor networks in the states of the Caribbean, Florida, Canada, and in South and Central America but the majority of its revenue is generated from Florida.
Executives
| Rodney Hershberger |
director |
PGT INNOVATIONS, INC., 1070 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, NORTH VENICE FL 34275 |
| Christopher J Stephens |
director |
123 MAIN STREET, BRISTOL CT 06010 |
| Deborah L Lapinska |
officer: See Remarks |
PGT, INC., 1070 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, NORTH VENICE FL 34275 |
| Craig Henderson |
officer: INTERIM CFO |
1070 TECHNOLOGY DR., NORTH VENICE FL 34275 |
| Richard D Feintuch |
director |
PGT INNOVATIONS, INC., 1070 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, NORTH VENICE FL 34275 |
| Robert Andrew Keller |
officer: Sr. V.P. of Cust. Str & Innov. |
1070 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, NORTH VENICE FL 34275 |
| Frances Powell Hawes |
director |
AMERICAN ELECTRIC TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 6410 LONG DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77087 |
| William J Morgan |
director |
123 MAIN STREET, BRISTOL CT 06011-0489 |
| Sheree L Bargabos |
director |
1070 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, NORTH VENICE FL 34275 |
| Xavier Boza |
director |
ONE CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103 |
| Floyd F Sherman |
director |
BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC., 2001 BRYAN STREET, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Alexander R Castaldi |
director |
BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC., 2001 BRYAN STREET, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Brett N Milgrim |
director |
BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC., 2001 BRYAN STREET, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Ryan S. Quinn |
officer: Sr. V.P. and General Counsel |
11115 RUSHMORE DR., CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Jeffrey T Jackson |
director, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO |
PGT, INC., 1070 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, NORTH VENICE FL 34275 |
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