PG&E (PCG) Predictability Rank

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What is PG&E Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PG&E Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PG&E Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PG&E (PCG) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » PG&E Corp (NYSE:PCG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PCG:Mexico 1PCG:Italy PCG:Germany PCG:Germany PCG:Austria

Address

300 Lakeside Drive, Oakland, CA, USA, 94612

Website

https://www.pgecorp.com

PG&E is a holding company whose main subsidiary is Pacific Gas and Electric, a regulated utility operating in Central and Northern California that serves 5.3 million electricity customers and 4.6 million gas customers in 47 of the state's 58 counties. PG&E operated under bankruptcy court supervision between January 2019 and June 2020. In 2004, PG&E sold its unregulated assets as part of an earlier postbankruptcy reorganization.

Executives

Cheryl F. Campbell	director	C/O 77 BEALE ST., P.O. BOX 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177
Carolyn Jeanne Burke	officer: EVP Finance	C/O EXCELERATE ENERGY, INC., 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., LEVEL 6, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Patricia K Poppe	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	77 BEALE STREET, POB 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177
Edward G Cannizzaro	director	5130 HACIENDA DRIVE, DUBLIN CA 94568
Stephanie N Williams	officer: VP and Controller	77 BEALE STREET, PO BOX 77000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177
Pg&e Fire Victim Trust	10 percent owner	TWO EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 1500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
William Lloyd Smith	director	46429 LANDING PARKWAY, FREMONT CA 94538
Marlene Santos	other: EVP, CCO at PG&E Company	77 BEALE STREET, P.O. BOX 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94117
Carlos M Hernandez	director
Adam L Wright	other: EVP, Ops & COO at PG&E Company	77 BEALE STREET, P.O. BOX 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177
Julius Cox	officer: EVP/Ppl, Shrd Svcs & Spply Chn	77 BEALE STREET, POB 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177
Sumeet Singh	officer: EVP/CRO & Chf Safety Ofc	77 BEALE STREET, PO BOX 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177
Ajay Waghray	officer: SVP & Chf Information Ofc	C/O ASSURANT, INC., 28 LIBERTY STREET, 41 FL., NEW YORK NY 1
Carla J Peterman	officer: EVP/Corp. Affairs & CSO	77 BEALE STREET, P.O. BOX 77000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177
Christopher A Foster	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	77 BEALE ST., P.O. BOX 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177