Opendoor Technologies (Opendoor Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Opendoor Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Opendoor Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Opendoor Technologies (Opendoor Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Opendoor Technologies Inc (NAS:OPEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OPEN1:Mexico 25M:Germany

Address

410 N. Scottsdale Road, Suite 1600, Tempe, AZ, USA, 85281

Website

https://www.opendoor.com

Opendoor Technologies Inc is a digital platform for residential real estate. This platform enables customers to buy and sell houses online. It generates revenue through home sales, along with other revenue from real estate services.

Executives

Megan D. Meyer	officer: President, Sell Direct & Svcs.	C/O OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 410 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 1600, TEMPE AZ 85281
Christina Schwartz	officer: See Remarks	C/O OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 410 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 1600, TEMPE AZ 85281
Sydney Schaub	officer: Chief Legal Officer	OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 410 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 1600, TEMPE AZ 85281
Carrie Wheeler	officer: CFO	500 VOLVO PARKWAY, CHESAPEAKE VA 23320
Dana Hamilton	director	C/O ARCHSTONE-SMITH TRUST, 9200 E. PANORAMA CIRCLE, SUITE 400, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Eric Chung-wei Wu	director, officer: CEO	C/O OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1 POST STREET, FLOOR 11, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Daniel Morillo	officer: Chief Investment Officer	C/O OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1 POST STREET, FLOOR 11, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Low Ah Kee Andrew	officer: President	C/O GODADDY INC., 14455 N. HAYDEN RD., SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Glenn Solomon	director	C/O GGV CAPITAL, 3000 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 4-230, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Pueo Keffer	director	C/O OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1 POST STREET, FLOOR 11, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Svf Excaliber (cayman) Ltd	10 percent owner	27 HOSPITAL ROAD, WALKERS CORPORATE LTD., CAYMAN CORPORATE CENTRE, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY-9008
Elizabeth Ann Stevens	officer: Head of Legal	C/O OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1 POST STREET, FLOOR 11, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Rice E. John Jr	director	7272 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1300, BETHESDA MD 20814
Jason Kilar	director	208 S. AKARD ST, DALLAS TX 75202
Jonathan M Jaffe	director	LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR, MIAMI FL 33172