Northern Oil & Gas (Northern Oil & Gas) Predictability Rank

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What is Northern Oil & Gas Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Northern Oil & Gas Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Northern Oil & Gas (Northern Oil & Gas) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Northern Oil & Gas Inc (NYSE:NOG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4LT1:Germany

Address

4350 Baker Road, Suite 400, Minnetonka, MN, USA, 55343

Website

https://www.northernoil.com

Northern Oil & Gas Inc is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties. Its principal business is crude oil and natural gas exploration, development, and production with operations in North Dakota and Montana that primarily target the Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Williston Basin of the United States.

Executives

Robert B. Rowling	10 percent owner	4001 MAPLE AVE, SUITE 600, DALLAS TX 75219
William F Kimble	director	6900 E. LAYTON AVE., SUITE 900, DENVER CO 80237
Jennifer S. Pomerantz	director	4350 BAKER ROAD, SUITE 400, MINNETONKA MN 55343
Cresta Greenwood, Llc	10 percent owner	4001 MAPLE AVENUE, SUITE 600, DALLAS TX 75219
Rowling Family 2012 Long Term Trust	other: See Remarks	4001 MAPLE AVENUE, SUITE 600, DALLAS TX 75219
James B. Evans	officer: Executive VP & Chief Engineer	601 CARLSON PARKWAY, SUITE 990, MINNETONKA MN 55305
Foundation Rowling	other: See Remarks	4001 MAPLE AVENUE, SUITE 600, DALLAS TX 75219
Stuart G. Lasher	director	4931 NEW PROVIDENCE, TAMPA FL 33629
Ttbr Investments Llc	10 percent owner	4001 MAPLE AVE, SUITE 600, DALLAS TX 75219
Trbrjr Investments Llc	10 percent owner	4001 MAPLE AVE, SUITE 600, DALLAS TX 75219
Michael D. Kelly	officer: EVP of Finance	3762 INGOLD STREET, HOUSTON TX 77005
Crestview Partners Iii Gp, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O CRESTVIEW PARTNERS, 590 MADISON AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Brandon R. Elliott	officer: EVP, Corporate Devp & Strategy	315 MANITOBA AVENUE, SUITE 200, WAYZATA MN 55391
Roy Ernest Easley	director	1048 TEXAN TRAIL, GRAPEVINE TX 76051
W Energy Partners Llc	10 percent owner	3811 TURTLE CREEK BLVD, SUITE 550, DALLAS TX 75219